Warriors

[Deverell]

It's not as if you're gonna have avatar on at all times unless you get a primal weapon, and you probably won't unless you're among the top raiders. That's easily a year away anyway, so that's a bit long-term to plan for already. I wouldn't take avatar into consideration.

Dex helps your proc rate, but it's so little that you probably won't be able to tell the difference unless you parse hours upon hours of grinding and look at the data. It's an invisible difference. Several hundred hp is a very visible difference, and I'd consider it much more important than what will probably amount to 0.05% higher proc chance. Ever since the devs nerfed proc rates last year, it has been pretty insignificant.

If you're as concerned about stats and mechanics as you seem, you really have to realize that ogre is the best choice in that regard. It's also the only warrior race that retains a useful innate ability once everything else is capped out, which you will in the end if you raid. In Velious gear and raid buffs, your dex will be capped as well and all the races will be equal except ogres are immune to bash and iksar have 42 more AC.

You can pick any race and do just fine, but if you want the mathematically best character, it's ogre (or iksar if you only care about the very end result). The stamina will serve you well until it's capped, and by then you'll be fine in the dex department and you won't lose swing time to constant bashstun.

If you want to disregard all that, you can play whatever you like and it won't make you incapable of doing whatever it is you want to do, just a little less solid.