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#11
01-20-2019, 01:27 PM
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This is a long read though please carry on as it should resonate with some of you. It may also give pause on some things.
If you want a TL;DR, it's looking various aspects that dictate value, then analyzing a particular item, where I assign values to those parameters as well as a few direct comparisons at the end. It's not the buyers fault as we always presume and a lack of consistency in appraising items via an understood baseline is the biggest factor, alongside an inefficient method of distributing the price data. There's several factors to consider on this issue.
Buyer ignorance This isn't quite what it seems. We have this attitude towards players that they're willingly giving sellers their asking price, consequently enabling and further promulgating the idea that they are appropriate. Or that they're rich and lazy and will pay whatever to get what they want. Really we do not have any proof of that. Rather I don't think that's much the case. Evidence we have is that a lot of the high priced value items stay on auction for fair amount of time. The only thing that changes are the names of the sellers whom simply shift over so they won't be on everyone's ignore list. If they were selling at a great rate, then we wouldn't be seeing the auctions as often. Lack of agreed value baseline Whatever attempts at this were done previously, only some remnants remain - where it suits people whether buying or selling. We should again establish a baseline for what constitutes value. Common parameters would be : Stats
Rarity/Difficulty
Utility/proc/click
Physical restrictions
Aesthetics
Unfortunately it seems that while at first glance many high value items take much of the above into consideration(or did at one time), that is not actually the case. Which leaves it open to wild interpretation and consumer ignorance enables market cornering and finally price fixing. No real risk for sellers/investors And while we could spend a lot of time talking about virtual trading versus real world (e.g. a tangible item that has physical value [think money backed by gold]), the real missing aspect is risk. In the real world of business and the marketplace, buying up stock of a product and cornering the market doesn't always work out. Many variables can stand in your way such as a shift in consumer attitude/interest, a rival product appearing, a transcending financial crisis that means sales are down universally, scam and fraudulent buyers and more. You make that mistake in life, it could leave you bankrupt. You don't file a chapter 9 in EverQuest. The only way this gets fixed is that : A ) We get back some modicum of baseline for what constitutes value. B ) Consumers educated themselves and refuse to pay exorbitant costs. They demand the seller provide a fair price. Format for viewing and storing prices The Project 1999 wikipedia price tracker is pretty poor. Fortunately there is the averages however in time that becomes less and less effective. The method to importing is pretty primitive and certainly controversial given anyone can fudge the data and upload without any scrutiny or checks. There use to be an option to amend entries that were inappropriate, though this doesn't work. A better method would be that (at least for high value items), the buyer or seller screenshots the transaction, submits that to Ravhin and a team of volunteers whom check it for legitimacy and then update the Wiki manually. Should anything seem extraordinary or unreasonable given an item's perceived value(refer back to baseline parameters above), then the submissions is declined. This would mean that the tracker doesn't show a bunch of log entries (which are often inconsistent themselves) - rather it would show the price, which in time will get updated should there be a significant enough change and/or maybe on an agreed time such as monthly. Why this wasn't arranged by the community prior I do not understand. We can have gatherings at hotel conference rooms about the raid scene, though nothing about the in-game economy (partly fueled and in large part saturated because of the raid scene). What items I find over priced As for my personal list...too many to name, however any high priced item going now, is likely four to forty times it's actual worth. Pretty much anything and everything shared by the others so far. And in my head, I cannot see any item really worth more than 100,000 with exception to a Manastone, and that is questionable given it is locked to pre Kunark areas for use. The most flagrant example to me though is with Circlet of Shadow:
Let's look at what it offers: [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Going by the parameters mentioned above, let's analyze: Stats Pure stats are respectable. 5AC and +10 to disease/poison is welcome for anyone. The mana is a small bonus. However there are better stats on easier to obtain items. On stats alone I would value it at around 200pp or less. Rarity/Difficulty
From a collector standpoint, it not dropping anymore might give it more value, such as with a Ykeasha Mace. From a use standpoint, it not dropping anymore does give it value IF the market was in short supply. At this stage there are so many in existence, there won't be enough new Shadow Knights and/or Necromancers joining Project 1999 that demand will outstrip supply. The item was also fairly easy to obtain. For that I give it no added value/price for rarity. Utility/proc/click
The real selling point here is the effect, which if not hindered by physical features it could be a legitimate 50k or higher item, yet as it is limited by class restriction and equipping to use, as well invisibility only works on living creatures (therefore not all mobs), I value the effect around 500pp maybe 1000pp. Physical Restrictions
This is as mentioned above, the thing that considerably lowers it's potential value as it is not an all/all or inventory click by all item. No added value for this aspect. Aesthetics Always subjective, though not an item known for it's graphic, unlike Rubicite or Cultural armors. No added value for this aspect. Miscellaneous Sometimes a hard parameter to define and qualify, though on this one it was quite obvious that when used in conjunction with Feign Death, you could achieve much greater success at managing mobs and avoiding failures/set backs. It increased overall experience gaining efficiency as a result while also providing a safety net. Due to this it's effect value would again, be very high. Yet the first Feign had to be work, otherwise it was irrelevant. And this is not a guarantee, either. However the big key, and if nothing else, this is the TL;DR about this particular item: Feign Death and the Memblur mechanic was finally fixed and as a result, past level thirty-five, should you stand before a mob resets, you will likely have aggro and they'll see through invisibility. Also, this item is not high in demand by any stretch and it's market value from an observed sense is not showing any logical patterns. The price rise seems to begin at an arbitrary point as opposed to what would be the logical one - slightly prior to or soon after the removal from the game world. Yet in 2016, it's value was peaking at around 5-6000 even post removal. Therefore, I can only add 2000pp at most for this miscellaneous aspect of it's utility given that mechanic update and it's popularity. Conclusion
My total appraisal then : 2500pp (Stats : 500, Effect : 2000) Contrasting against other like items on various parameters For comparison by way of stats the Blackened Ally Coif: [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] Stats This is a better item on pure stats, and is not that much easier to get. I will find you plenty of people that will prefer to camp a bodyguard, rather than Lord Pickclaw or wander around RunnyEye in their impatience trying to get Foeseeker and hope it drops. The value of the item is roughly 400pp. I find the stats are better from an overall approach, though would not argue provided someone found the Circlet of Shadow stats more suitable for their build and thus find the two items competitors for that market space. And a comparison with different parameters for : Staff of the Dreaded Gaze (from Xalgoz) [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] Stats To a low level they would be absolutely welcome yet at the same time, you can obtain many many other comparative hand held items or weapons with better stats for significantly less. For those with even a short supply of coin a Cone of the Mystics and Rokyls Channeling Crystal would be impressive. They are around 250 and 500pp respectively. Rarity/Difficulty Dropped by Xalgoz in Kaesora, a mob that is not difficult to reach, or to force to spawn. He is however a higher level mob than the bodyguard that dropped the Circlet of Shadow, and provided you let him self buff, able to put up an exceptional challenge to post 50 players when soloing on certain classes. His difficulty rating therefore his higher than the Droga mob without question. The drop rate for the item is another factor and possibly the biggest factor often over looked or unknown to many. From parses/logs and feedback from both Project 1999 and the original servers, the estimation is roughly : One staff drops in ninety appearances by Xalgoz. Xalgoz has about a 1/3 or 1/4 chance to spawn on a thirty minute timer. Quick math would have this that presuming he spawned twice in an hour, making that forty-five hours. Though many have confirmed one hundred or more hours to obtain the staff. Utility/proc/click At first glance the ability to click Fear seems quite useful. Given that most people can use the baseline Fear spell (instead of the upgraded ones) as it will land on mobs at even higher level, and that it would save you recasting what is a frequently used spell, you'd be hard pressed to find any fault. Yet eight seconds is a fair amount of time, and you're not always fear kiting as a Necromancer, especially later on. There is debate over whether it really is an effective click effect. For myself I find it is, at least in contrast to others that exist. And given that it is a click and not a proc, you have control over it completely. Physical Restrictions Class limited to one : Necromancer Effect limited : Level 40 Equip limited : Must be equipped Aesthetics This might be the other factor that affects it's value the most. It has the Sarnak Skull at the head of a basic wooden straight staff. However it is not alone and there are other items with that look. It does not emit an aura or special colors/particle effects. Miscellaneous Nothing to add The value of this item is currently 12,000 and that has been the case for quite some time - several years or more. For myself, I can't justify at that amount. It's a single class, limited situation use, unremarkable stat based item that is not difficult to obtain, only time consuming. I would appraise it 5500pp In direct contrast to the Circle of Shadow, it's effect is more useful, it is more rare and more difficult to obtain and carries some aesthetics value. | ||
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Last edited by Toodles; 01-20-2019 at 01:54 PM..
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