About Spawn variance....

[Supreme]

Originally Posted by fastboy21 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

i actually laughed out loud irl when the guy who doesn't understand simple probability called me simple minded.

You asked for feedback:
Your idea isn't good. Close the thread.

Now, before you post again to call me another name why don't you scroll through the responses to your brilliant idea and count the number of folks who posted anything to the effect of "this is a good idea...lets do it."

I will make this response as simple as i can.

It is not about probability. It is about 16 spawns in a 30 day cycle being the MINIMUM number of boss mobs that spawn instead of 12. The current system has 16 boss mobs as the MEDIAN of 12 (lowest number) and 20 (highest number).Which is much more in line with classic than the current system.

[Starklen]

Originally Posted by Supreme [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I will make this response as simple as i can.

It is not about probability. It is about 16 spawns in a 30 day cycle being the MINIMUM number of boss mobs that spawn instead of 12. The current system has 16 boss mobs as the MEDIAN of 12 (lowest number) and 20 (highest number).Which is much more in line with classic than the current system.

I'm not sure if you misspoke, but the median is the middle value, not the lowest.

Originally Posted by Evorix [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

A lot of you are mistaken on the current spawn variance... maestro/draco are 3days +/- 12 hours for a total 24 hour window. Gods/dragons are 7days +/- 24 hours for a total of 48 hours window. There are not 48 and 96 hour windows.... they are 24 and 48. The only reason DA/IB (and now WI) camps for days on end is because we get there before the window even begins to hold claim. These guilds are the ones who deserve the kills for the amount of time they spend camping them. You are not going to zone in and be able to kill a god/dragon when you have other guilds putting more effort. A lot of you people are simply tryin to be jackasses saying we have no jobs etc when this is false. We are simply keeping EQ loaded... Its really not that hard.

The 3 day bosses are on +- 24 hours and the 7 day bosses are on +- 48 hours. For example, the window for a boss like draco opens exactly 2 days after you kill him. This is also a matter of public record in the guild discussion forum.

[Evorix]

Originally Posted by Starklen [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The 3 day bosses are on +- 24 hours and the 7 day bosses are on +- 48 hours. For example, the window for a boss like draco opens exactly 2 days after you kill him. This is also a matter of public record in the guild discussion forum.

Think what you would like... If you have ever seen a boss spawn out of the 24/48 windows that i proclaim, then please share. My experience is that they have not. I'm not sure if this is intended or not.

[Starklen]

Originally Posted by Evorix [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Think what you would like... If you have ever seen a boss spawn out of the 24/48 windows that i proclaim, then please share. My experience is that they have not. I'm not sure if this is intended or not.

I've killed more than one boss in the past 2 weeks that spawned on what is technically day 1 of the 96 hour window.

[Supreme]

Originally Posted by Starklen [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm not sure if you misspoke, but the median is the middle value, not the lowest.

16 is the median number. If it was the mean it would be the average. Both could be used interchangeable.

When i reference 16 as the lowest it is by dropping the latter 48 hours.

However this is all IRRELEVANT as Evorix pointed out it is a 7 day spawn with a +/- 24 hour (or 48 hour random spawn) window.

[Ingrum]

Any idea that gets us closer to a classic raid environment, especially one as thought out as this, is worth a shot in my opinion. It's not such a dramatic change as to rock the server out of it's poopsocks, but it makes sense and the math is solid.

And to fastboy21 struggling to understand the concept. Don't visit the forums when you're drunk man. You'll save face and you might actually be able to comprehend logic. Supreme's pwn post reply to yours made me lawl. Since you're probably too stubborn to give up and not reply, try to think of something half as well thought out as the OP's before you go making an ass of yourself again... braw.

[mmiles8]

What you're essentially proposing is a 24 hour spawn variance rather than a 48 hour spawn variance, based around 6 days rather than 7 (a 1 day shorter cycle than currently exists). This is the only reason that your proposal seems more favorable than the current system, a shorter spawn variance, over time, does not mean more kills than a longer spawn variance. Choosing one probable outcome over another equally probable outcome to present a conclusion is called cherry picking and is not statistically sound research. Excel comes with a handy random number generator. I don't mind running the statistics for you. The 10 tests run over the span of a year (52 weeks, not 365 days). There are 8736 hours in 52 weeks.

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So here you have it. No matter what the spawn variance is, you're going to have the exact same probability of mobs over time. If you don't like my numbers, I set the entire thing up to run dynamically. You can recreate the entire experiment on the fly by editing the value of any blank cell on any test sheet, which will cause the random numbers to repopulate. The entire Excel Book is nothing but parameters, random numbers, and charts. The only thing you would have to manually do is run the descriptive statistics tool again on the new numbers, and set the output ranges to E2 and G2 on the Data Analysis sheet for 24 and 48 hours, respectively.

Here's the Spreadsheet

If you want to draw a conclusion, you've got to have some dataz.

[Supreme]

Originally Posted by mmiles8 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

What you're essentially proposing is a 24 hour spawn variance rather than a 48 hour spawn variance, based around 6 days rather than 7 (a 1 day shorter cycle than currently exists). This is the only reason that your proposal seems more favorable than the current system, a shorter spawn variance, over time, does not mean more kills than a longer spawn variance. Choosing one probable outcome over another equally probable outcome to present a conclusion is called cherry picking and is not statistically sound research. Excel comes with a handy random number generator. I don't mind running the statistics for you. The 10 tests run over the span of a year (52 weeks, not 365 days). There are 8736 hours in 52 weeks.

So here you have it. No matter what the spawn variance is, you're going to have the exact same probability of mobs over time. If you don't like my numbers, I set the entire thing up to run dynamically. You can recreate the entire experiment on the fly by editing the value of any blank cell on any test sheet, which will cause the random numbers to repopulate. The entire Excel Book is nothing but parameters, random numbers, and charts. The only thing you would have to manually do is run the descriptive statistics tool again on the new numbers, and set the output ranges to E2 and G2 on the Data Analysis sheet for 24 and 48 hours, respectively.

Here's the Spreadsheet

If you want to draw a conclusion, you've got to have some dataz.

I am suggesting that instead of 16 being the median or mean number of spawns in a month that 16 be the MINIMUM. This would parallel with live and classic Everquest. I am not disputing "probabilities" here. I know that the probabilities are the same no matter if it is 24 48 96 or 8736 hours. We should be seeing a mean number of 18-20 instead of 16.

[Humerox]

Originally Posted by Supreme [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The idea of +/- 48 hours seems sound *cough* but has anyone considered that it really could decrease the number of times in a 30 day span that the boss mob would spawn?

I don't think there's a whole lot of interest in that at the current time, with the current state of affairs.

[Extunarian]

Thanks miles for whipping out the spreadsheet. I really didn't understand how the OP was trying to prove here, and his dismissal of fastboy's post as 'simple' really illustrated that he (the OP) is on shaky ground.

I think this has more to do with wanting to cut down the max camping time from 96 to 48 hours.