Pained Soul - % spawn rate is .002 not .02

[Koopmd]

I was told that Pained Soul spawn timer is 2%.
2% should be 2 every 100 right? And I realize it can skew but it is spawning 1 in 360 times (once every 40 hours) ... that is 0.0027 ... or .2% not 2%. Is this correct?

Thank You!

[Koopmd]

Made mistake in math dividing 40 hours by spawn timer not dividing 40 hours by (spawn timer + kill amount of time) or (6:40+40s or 440s). So currently it is .3% not .2%.

[Ele]

You aren't guaranteed 2 Pained Souls in 100 cycles.

Each spawn is independent and has a 2% chance of being Pained Soul. The appearance or non-appearance of Pained Soul does not affect the next cycle. Sitting there does not increase the chance that any single random cycle will be Pained Soul. However, your probability of seeing a Pained Soul overall goes up for each additional spawn you witness. Another thing skewing people's experiences/perceptions is that once someone gets the Pained Soul they usually leave so they aren't killing anymore place holders that would further modify their ratio of place holder to Pained Soul.

The person that walks up to the camp for the first time and sees Pained Soul spawned has a 100% spawn ratio. Then there are other people that put 60+ hours into it before they get it.



40 hours = 2400 minutes = 144000 seconds

spawn time = 6 minutes 40 seconds = 400 seconds

Kill time of 60 seconds -- 144000 / (400+60) = ~312 place holders, 1 pained soul
Kill time of 40 seconds -- 144000 / (400+40) = ~326 place holders, 1 pained soul

[EQsale]

This is not a bug please move it too rnf

Rng is rng stop crying already

[Nibblewitz]

These links might be helpful:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[Lojik]

Have they even divulged a spawn rate? You can pretty easily generate scenarios based on 1/2%, 1%, and 2% and see that it's quite common to get long windows where the guy won't pop.

[LostCause]

ive seen people get PS after first ph..

[mropey]

Seen back to back PS spawns... Guess what the next guy went through to get his..

[Tameth]

I've been casually passing through and Pained Soul was up twice. I also once spent a total of 56 hours off and on with no luck. Shit is brutal.