ASOIAF / Game of Thrones (SPOILERS INSIDE)

[Mandalore93]

Why are you quoting me show material? They very clearly white wall certain characters and change things to make them seem like the under dog. But after oxcross, Robb has half again the army of tywin.

[Patriam1066]

Feudal armies need farmland for food and supply. There's no way the Iron Islands have anywhere near as many soldiers as most of the other major houses. I could be wrong, but as the Iron Islands are the Somalia of Westeros, I doubt they have much power beyond their fleet and a few raiding parties.

[Sirken]

Originally Posted by Mandalore93 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Why are you quoting me show material? They very clearly white wall certain characters and change things to make them seem like the under dog. But after oxcross, Robb has half again the army of tywin.

ummmmm, because the show is more canon than some random old game that GRRM wasn't involved with? and had you read the wall of text, you would have seen it compares show numbers with book numbers (ex: stormland numbers), as well as addresses things that the show has skipped (Jaime lifting the siege at riverrun).

[Sirken]

Originally Posted by Patriam1066 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Feudal armies need farmland for food and supply. There's no way the Iron Islands have anywhere near as many soldiers as most of the other major houses. I could be wrong, but as the Iron Islands are the Somalia of Westeros, I doubt they have much power beyond their fleet and a few raiding parties.

this is true, they usually raid ships and steal their stock (ie: food, wine, females). i wouldnt call them somalia since they have the worlds best navy, but sure close enough

[Mandalore93]

I don't think we're on the same page here sirk. I'm talking exclusively about the strength of the north solely above the neck. So bugger the strength of the wester lands and what strength Robb has!

Just saying that grrm's weakness with scale creates a bit of a plot hole in how the iron born are even remotely a threat. As for it being theon's fault, the longships were already called. Theon's plan was to take lannisport and make Casterly Rock his seat. It was only once he was in the north that he decided to take winter fell

[Aenor]

I agree that Theon ever thinking he could take and hold the north is a major plot hole. Even holding Moat Calin, there are enough northerners still in the north that Theon could never convince a sufficient force to disobey his father, abandon their strength at sea and attempt to hold a continental land mass with a raiding party off a few ships.

However, I'm going to take the conversation even further afield because I'm rereading the books and I just don't see how Cat and Robb could be so dumb as to leave Bolton at their backs. BTW, part II of the Northern Conspiracy was just posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IlzXQVKpbM

It left me even more confused and more motivated to get to the last two books in my current reread so I can make sense of it.

So here's MY plot hole. Early in the war, Robb succeeds in securing two choke points of incalculable strategic significance: Moat Cailin and the Twins. If Walder Frey tells Robb to fuck off, he has no choice but to march down the King's Road and meet Tywin's massed force. With the twins secured, Robb can now make his gambit to break the siege of Riverrun and gather the river lords under his banner.

When the decision is made to split his forces and try to win through to Riverrun, Cat convinces Robb to put Bolton in command of his Eastern force. Cat's desperation to break the siege of Riverrun is understandable, but there's no question that they realize the risk they're taking. They're attempting a sneak attack on Jaime that could leave them all dead. They know that Bran with no army can't hold the North if their retreat is cut off. If their suicide mission fails, as it stands a strong chance of doing, the only hope for House Stark to avoid extinction is to be able to retreat back through the Twins to Moat Cailin.

If the Stark line fails, who is first in line to rule the North after them? Cat and Robb would know the answer to this question instantly.

Once Bolton is given the Eastern command he does exactly what you would expect him to do, given House Bolton's historic rivalry with House Stark. He rushes his forces headlong into Tywin's while keeping his personal force in reserve, thus extinguishing as much Northern strength as he possibly can while preserving his personal forces.

Sure, Robb is a boy and Cat is one of the stupidest characters in the series. But you can't tell me they didn't have some loyal commander from their personal forces at Winterfell to stop them and say "overextending all the Stark forces while leaving Roose Bolton in command of your rear is an incredibly stupid idea."

Robb should have left commanders and forces of direct loyalty to the Starks to hold Moat Cailin and the Twins. Instead of Bolton pushing the forces of the other Northern lords ahead of him like lambs to the slaughter, the opposite should have happened. Robb should have had the bulk of Bolton's forces as the vanguard from the Whispering Wood all the way to the Battle of the Camps. If they lose, the cavalry retreats to the Twins and Robb possibly wins back through to Moat Cailin with enough of his personal force intact to hold the North indefinitely, even if he has lost the Riverlands to the Lannisters.

Secondly, the orders for the Eastern force should NEVER have been to engage Tywin's force, much less rush headlong into them at the end of a forced march as they sit there well provisioned and rested. With the strategic choke points of the Twins and Moat Cailin secure, the Eastern force should have been sent to execute a feint against Tywin, harry his scouts and foragers and hope to lure as much of Tywin's force north as possible. The Twins can only be besieged if you have an army on both sides of the Green Fork. If the Eastern force succeeds in luring Tywin north, that force simply retreats until it divides to reinforce Moat Cailin and the Twins and Tywin is stuck looking at two unassailable fortifications and his forces well and truly divided.

Now, great commander that he is, maybe Tywin never takes the bait and leaves his Eastern army sitting on the Trident. This is still a positive result for Robb because if Tywin fails to besiege the Twins from the East, then his retreat to Moat Cailin is not cut off by land. The only possible bad result for Robb is what actually happens: A large portion of his Eastern force is expended because he left Bolton in command and his retreat is cut off due to Bolton's entirely predictable ambition and treachery.

Even if Tywin besieges the Twins from the east and Robb is utterly defeated by Jaime west of the Green Fork, Robb's force can still retreat to Seagard and take ship to Barrowton to reinforce Moat Cailin from the north. Sure, they might encounter difficulties with the Iron Islanders, but ships packed with battle-tested warriors are no easy meat for pirates. Whatever remains of Robb's force that can't fit onto the available ships reinforces Seagard and the Twins in a last stand.

Sure, I say all of this with the benefit of hindsight. But this strikes me as a major plot hole brought about by necessity. GRRM scripted the books out a certain way and he needed for Robb and Cat to fall right into Bolton's trap to tell the story he wanted to tell. As I said, though, there would have had to be SOMEBODY loyal to House Stark present at the Twins when the decision was made to divide forces who could have told Robb and Cat what a bad idea it was to leave Bolton in their rear. I call bullshit.

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Aenor [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I agree that Theon ever thinking he could take and hold the north is a major plot hole. Even holding Moat Calin, there are enough northerners still in the north that Theon could never convince a sufficient force to disobey his father, abandon their strength at sea and attempt to hold a continental land mass with a raiding party off a few ships.

However, I'm going to take the conversation even further afield because I'm rereading the books and I just don't see how Cat and Robb could be so dumb as to leave Bolton at their backs. BTW, part II of the Northern Conspiracy was just posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IlzXQVKpbM

It left me even more confused and more motivated to get to the last two books in my current reread so I can make sense of it.

So here's MY plot hole. Early in the war, Robb succeeds in securing two choke points of incalculable strategic significance: Moat Cailin and the Twins. If Walder Frey tells Robb to fuck off, he has no choice but to march down the King's Road and meet Tywin's massed force. With the twins secured, Robb can now make his gambit to break the siege of Riverrun and gather the river lords under his banner.

When the decision is made to split his forces and try to win through to Riverrun, Cat convinces Robb to put Bolton in command of his Eastern force. Cat's desperation to break the siege of Riverrun is understandable, but there's no question that they realize the risk they're taking. They're attempting a sneak attack on Jaime that could leave them all dead. They know that Bran with no army can't hold the North if their retreat is cut off. If their suicide mission fails, as it stands a strong chance of doing, the only hope for House Stark to avoid extinction is to be able to retreat back through the Twins to Moat Cailin.

If the Stark line fails, who is first in line to rule the North after them? Cat and Robb would know the answer to this question instantly.

Once Bolton is given the Eastern command he does exactly what you would expect him to do, given House Bolton's historic rivalry with House Stark. He rushes his forces headlong into Tywin's while keeping his personal force in reserve, thus extinguishing as much Northern strength as he possibly can while preserving his personal forces.

Sure, Robb is a boy and Cat is one of the stupidest characters in the series. But you can't tell me they didn't have some loyal commander from their personal forces at Winterfell to stop them and say "overextending all the Stark forces while leaving Roose Bolton in command of your rear is an incredibly stupid idea."

Robb should have left commanders and forces of direct loyalty to the Starks to hold Moat Cailin and the Twins. Instead of Bolton pushing the forces of the other Northern lords ahead of him like lambs to the slaughter, the opposite should have happened. Robb should have had the bulk of Bolton's forces as the vanguard from the Whispering Wood all the way to the Battle of the Camps. If they lose, the cavalry retreats to the Twins and Robb possibly wins back through to Moat Cailin with enough of his personal force intact to hold the North indefinitely, even if he has lost the Riverlands to the Lannisters.

Secondly, the orders for the Eastern force should NEVER have been to engage Tywin's force, much less rush headlong into them at the end of a forced march as they sit there well provisioned and rested. With the strategic choke points of the Twins and Moat Cailin secure, the Eastern force should have been sent to execute a feint against Tywin, harry his scouts and foragers and hope to lure as much of Tywin's force north as possible. The Twins can only be besieged if you have an army on both sides of the Green Fork. If the Eastern force succeeds in luring Tywin north, that force simply retreats until it divides to reinforce Moat Cailin and the Twins and Tywin is stuck looking at two unassailable fortifications and his forces well and truly divided.

Now, great commander that he is, maybe Tywin never takes the bait and leaves his Eastern army sitting on the Trident. This is still a positive result for Robb because if Tywin fails to besiege the Twins from the East, then his retreat to Moat Cailin is not cut off by land. The only possible bad result for Robb is what actually happens: A large portion of his Eastern force is expended because he left Bolton in command and his retreat is cut off due to Bolton's entirely predictable ambition and treachery.

Even if Tywin besieges the Twins from the east and Robb is utterly defeated by Jaime west of the Green Fork, Robb's force can still retreat to Seagard and take ship to Barrowton to reinforce Moat Cailin from the north. Sure, they might encounter difficulties with the Iron Islanders, but ships packed with battle-tested warriors are no easy meat for pirates. Whatever remains of Robb's force that can't fit onto the available ships reinforces Seagard and the Twins in a last stand.

Sure, I say all of this with the benefit of hindsight. But this strikes me as a major plot hole brought about by necessity. GRRM scripted the books out a certain way and he needed for Robb and Cat to fall right into Bolton's trap to tell the story he wanted to tell. As I said, though, there would have had to be SOMEBODY loyal to House Stark present at the Twins when the decision was made to divide forces who could have told Robb and Cat what a bad idea it was to leave Bolton in their rear. I call bullshit.

Yeah, I've always wondered why Roose would be chosen for command, given the historic hatred between the two houses that you've already mentioned. I simply attributed it to Robb being an idiot... like him sending off Theon to Pyke thinking that anything good would come of it. But you're right, there should've been someone loyal and intelligent enough within his camp to tell him that Roose should be kept close. Not sure what to say about it... it's definitely a plot hole and doesn't make much sense.

[Mandalore93]

Say it with me people, it was not Theon's plan to take the north. The reason he was sent to Pyke in the first place is twofold. Firstly, he's Balon's son. Secondly he's the one who came up with the alliance plan for the Islanders to attack the Westerlands.

Secondly, at the time of Roose taking command, he's done nothing treasonous that anyone's heard of. Even his eccentricities aren't known given his "quiet rule" policies. He's a seasoned commander and known for being level headed and a man who thinks. He is the logical choice at the time in comparison with the other idiotic lords. Even after he pretty much defies what Robb thinks he would do...he can't be relieved. He's one of the most powerful bannermen that Robb has. This isn't a centralized state where you can just pull generals left and right.

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Mandalore93 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Say it with me people, it was not Theon's plan to take the north. The reason he was sent to Pyke in the first place is twofold. Firstly, he's Balon's son. Secondly he's the one who came up with the alliance plan for the Islanders to attack the Westerlands.

Secondly, at the time of Roose taking command, he's done nothing treasonous that anyone's heard of. Even his eccentricities aren't known given his "quiet rule" policies. He's a seasoned commander and known for being level headed and a man who thinks. He is the logical choice at the time in comparison with the other idiotic lords. Even after he pretty much defies what Robb thinks he would do...he can't be relieved. He's one of the most powerful bannermen that Robb has. This isn't a centralized state where you can just pull generals left and right.

Balon is known to hate the Starks and to be vindictive. There is a 0% chance that Theon can convince Balon to join the Northern cause, and Robb should've been smart enough to know that. Balon's reputation isn't exactly a secret. By sending Theon, his only potential leverage over the Iron Islands, he's almost guaranteed that his coastline will be raided.

As for Bolton... you've made the case perfectly for why he shouldn't have been sent. He sent his most powerful bannerman to lead the larger portion of his host, with the Frey men. Frey is known to be deceitful (Cat doesn't trust him and has known him her entire life), and while I don't think Walder planned on betraying Robb until his marriage to Jeyne happened, it still wasn't adding up. Combine that with the very real possibility of feudal rebellion (how many minor lords have revolted against their King / Earl etc when given the opportunity) by Bolton, and he was setting himself up for failure. In short, the Young Wolf wanted Greatjon Umber to lead his other host and he should've trusted his first instinct. Never trust the man who has the most to gain from your failure.

PS: I hope in the show the Blackfish rides into battle playing Ride of the Valkyries on a lute as he dismembers the entire Bolton army, proceeding to flay Roose and Ramsay alive with a potato peeler. Picture Apocalypse Now with more brutality.

[Mandalore93]

The only thing I agree with you on is that sending Theon to Balon was an all around stupid idea and is basically the only thing that Catelyn is ever right about.

It's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't in this case. Sending anyone other than the head of the lordly house would most like be seen as a huge slight. His other lords are hot heads, Roose is chosen for his cool head. At the time of ACOK, Bolton has as far as everyone knows loyally served the Starks through two generations and three wars. His methodology is surely a bit different than others, but that's honestly what makes him a valued commander in this case. We don't even know for certain that Bolton was purposefully trying to weaken the Stark cause from the start, it just seems like it. Greatjon would have been the utterly worst choice. I think Karstark would have been the best choice. Remember, at this point his sons haven't been killed and he's no fool.

Also, I'm not 100% sure on this, but I'm pretty sure the majority of the Frey host marches with Robb to Riverrun.