student loans are a hit!

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It doesn't work that way unfortunately, and that's not just me bullshitting it's borne out by criminologists; criminals tend not to be the most rational actors. In fact, it does the exact opposite. Being in prison longer more extensively destabilizes lives and further indoctrinates into criminality.

Even the corrections union, JSTOR (journal of a bunch of lawyers), and Federal Office of Justice Programs (corrections oversight) say this

Could you think of any reason they would say that other than it being the God's honest truth?

Prisons are expensive.

Now you try!

[Origen]

Originally Posted by aussenseiter [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Unforced error here.

Not my precious scorecard! The opinions of fascists and those that enable them in pretend intellectual discussions are very important to me

[Lune]

Originally Posted by unsunghero [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

How do we measure the people who were deterred by the penalty from attempting in the first place. How do they report this on surveys? They go fill out some survey saying they were thinking about x crime but changed their mind because of the penalty?

Looks like your studies are cherry picking re-offenders.

The same way they study pretty much anything involving human health or behavior; by looking at recidivism rates between jurisdictions and controlling for variables to isolate cause and effect to a meaningful p value and effect size.

We know crime rates in the 80's went bananas before declining again but we don't really know why. Some jurisdictions went 'tough on crime', others didn't, even within the same city (overlapping sheriff and PD jurisdictions for example, or Los Angeles vs. Long Beach, Dallas vs. Fort Worth). They collated all this data and controlled for things like demographics, poverty, national and local overall crime trends, and looked at recidivism rates for different policies. They compared to similar jurisdictions to control for naturally changing crime rates. Jurisdictions with longer sentences either saw no significant change or an increase in crime, overall.

Originally Posted by unsunghero [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Longer sentences also deter offending by keeping the person away from the public for longer, do they not?

They absolutely do, this is called incapacitation (vs. deterrence) and it does reduce crime in the short term, but is counteracted to an extent by increased crime from the long sentences in criminal academy.

You're keeping people off the streets where they can't commit crimes against the public, but you're also taking someone who maybe could have been redirected and fucking them up, as well as putting a bunch of other criminals in their lives. Then think of the determinism of your life and consider how things might have been different for you if you spent your late teens and early 20's hanging out with a bunch of drug dealers, burglars, and muggers for literally years on end day after day. Also you probably already feel like you fucked up your life. Then compare this to moving somebody out of the situation they were in when they committed the crime, but getting them back out before their life is completely fucked and they grew up in prison.

Tony Soprano isn't like "oh shit they're RICOing us bedda stop mobbin'"

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The same way they study pretty much anything involving human health or behavior; by looking at recidivism rates between jurisdictions and controlling for variables to isolate cause and effect to a meaningful p value and effect size.

We know crime rates in the 80's went bananas before declining again but we don't really know why. Some jurisdictions went 'tough on crime', others didn't, even within the same city (overlapping sheriff and PD jurisdictions for example, or Los Angeles vs. Long Beach, Dallas vs. Fort Worth). They collated all this data and controlled for things like demographics, poverty, national and local overall crime trends, and looked at recidivism rates for different policies. They compared to similar jurisdictions to control for naturally changing crime rates. Jurisdictions with longer sentences either saw no significant change or an increase in crime, overall.

Malleated data of the seventh order. Why do you trust the conclusion?

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Origen [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Not my precious scorecard! The opinions of fascists and those that enable them in pretend intellectual discussions are very important to me

Buddy they're gonna say the same thing you did but about a different cohort of offenders.

And you've already given your rational approval for the concept.

Suck less.

[Lune]

Originally Posted by aussenseiter [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Malleated data of the seventh order. Why do you trust the conclusion?

It's the same data that goes into what kind of interventions they give you at the hospital, where they've improved treatment for countless things hundredfold for some conditions. Down to which anticoagulants work best for each race.

And I guarantee you're hopping on that ambulance when your heart starts dying. Data scientists use the exact same methods. These methods have even become central in theoretical physics, chemistry, engineering when dealing with chaotic and complex systems.

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It's the same data that goes into what kind of interventions they give you at the hospital, where they've improved treatment for countless things hundredfold for some conditions. Down to which anticoagulants work best for each race.

And physiology is the same as psychology why?

[Lune]

Originally Posted by aussenseiter [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And physiology is the same as psychology why?

It's not physiology Dr. Zaius, it's pharmacology, surgery, oncology, internal medicine, etc. These fields where they've become exponentially more effective at treating most conditions over the past 30 years even. The way these fields choose the best intervention is to find statistical significance, effect size, positive and negative likelihood ratios, just like public policy interventions.

It's the only way you prove eliquis is better than warfarin as well as evidence-based sentences better than emotional sentencing.

[loramin]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Tony Soprano isn't like "oh shit they're RICOing us bedda stop mobbin'"

Eloquently stated.

[aussenseiter]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

It's not physiology Dr. Zaius, it's pharmacology, surgery, oncology, internal medicine, etc. These fields where they've become exponentially more effective at treating most conditions over the past 30 years even. The way these fields choose the best intervention is to find statistical significance, effect size, positive and negative likelihood ratios, just like public policy interventions.

It's the only way you prove eliquis is better than warfarin as well as reasonable sentences better than long term sentencing.

You didn't answer the why part? 🤪

Baseball taught me that every analytics guy should be beaten regularly and severely.