NPC Spawn Issue: Tserrina Syl'Tor in ToFS

[Zentile]

Originally Posted by Man0warr [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

2 people in our guild have robe for sure, not sure how long it took them to get it.

Also, Nilbog like's using Magelo drop data, and the Robe on Magelo is ~1% chance.

http://eq.magelo.com/item/29127

I addressed the incorrect Magelo data above in post#7 above and as copied below. The sample size of 1 drop is far too small to draw any conclusions from too.

Originally Posted by Zentile [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

According to Magelo, the symbol (6), whip (4), staff (4), and robe (1) dropped a total of 15 out of 63 times. We know that's simply wrong since she always drops one of those four so I don't know if Magelo is the definitive source here.

[Zentile]

Objective Data After 50 Tserrina kills Over 95 Hours...

New Rates (from 95 hours this week)
1) Bats Respawn: every 60 minutes
2) Tserrina Appearance Rate: 50 appearances in 380 bats or 1 in 7.6
3) Robe Drop: 0 in 50 kills

1) Bats Respawn: every 60 minutes
As commented above, the bat respawn rate on Live changed from ~45 minutes to 60 minutes but the timeline is a bit hazy. Some point to a 2005 patch and others to a 2001 patch. If the latter is true, then the change was accurately reflected on p99.

2) Tserrina Appearance Rate: 50 appearances in 380 bats or 1 in 7.6
Her long-term average appearance rate is 1 every 7.6 bats, meaning that if you stay for four bats, then you have a 43.1% chance of seeing her spawn. But if you stay for 8 bats, that rises to 67.7% of the time. Pushed out a bit farther, if you stay for 16 bats or four cycles, on p99 there is a 1 in 10 chance that you won't see her pop. This has happened to me twice already and doesn't seem classic. I don't see any evidence that people were camping her for four straight cycles and coming up empty.

3) Robe Drop: 0 in 50 kills
Symbol 26x (52.0%)
Staff 20x (40.0%)
Whip 4x (8.0%)
Robe 0x (0.0%)
Total Drops 50x

If the Robe is a "very rare" drop (coded at 1 in 20) as Telin describes, then our lack of drops could be blamed on bad luck. The probability of getting a 1 in 20 drop if you stay for 50 named kills is 92.3% - so 7.7% of the time you don't see it. I can only comment on my personal experiences, but I know two others who I'm camping with that have been here 3+ days longer than I have. So my 0 for 50 is more realistically a 0 in 75 and the 7.7% is more like 2.1%.

Another possible explanation is the drop rate is currently broken, which may have happened in the January 31, 2016 patch that gave her a last name. But there is player evidence above stating the robe has dropped since January 31, so it may be a more recent change that bugged her table.

Lastly, and this has been my point for a few days now, is the 1 in 20 coding of the Robe is not classic. There is no evidence on Allakazams that it was ever this rare, being an uncommon drop at worst with a long-term average rate of ~1 in 6 or 1 in 8. The only data on Magelo is pretty lousy with only 1 data point, but even that is 1 in 15.

My Request
1. Can a Dev (Telin?) please look into the Robe drop rate to ensure it's not currently broken.
2. Can a Dev or GM please comment on where the 1 in 20 came from, and when it was changed as this has not been the players experience on p99 to date and was not a classic experience either.

Killing her 75 times and not getting the robe once this week, while other players on p99 have seen two robes drop in an evening session feels like more than just bad luck. If the robe is supposed to be 1 in 8 drop, then the chances of getting it once in 75 kills is 99.996%.

Thanks,
Zentile

[Krinkill]

All I can say for sure is my experience on live during Velious was a much much higher Drop rate on robe for Tserrina than what im reading, I remember a pretty much even chance of of all items on her loot table dropping.

[Zentile]

This is the most detailed post I can find on her drops over time, as referenced earlier in the thread.

We killed her 6 times tonight, the group we had was: 60 necro, 57 necro, 55 druid (me)...later our 57 necro left and was replaced by a 59 warrior.
She's indeed very MR, we couldn't land root, snare, necro mez nor anything else magic-based. However, fire and cold based nukes landed for full damage 70% of time and the necros had no problem dotting her, but when I tried to cast on her my magic-based dot (*very* rarely resisted), it didn't land [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
The Charm, Fear and Darkness spells she casted were easily resisted with 120 MR. She was quite easy to kill with this group, I was chainhealing either the pet or the warrior and the necro/s lifetapping and dotting.... the problems started when the pet got charmed, we had no one to tank her and for some reason we couldn't dispell it, but finally she died.
oh well... what she dropped:

1. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Robe
2. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Symbol
3. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Staff, Tserrina's Whip
4. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Whip
5. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Staff
6. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Robe

the robe doesn't look that rare, we wanted two Symbols and it just dropped once..though people said it was the most common item (besides of the mage-only item, which dropped every time)

Edit: Killed her a few more times yesterday with the same group than the first time, drops as follow:

1. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Robe
2. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Whip
3. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem
4. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Staff
5. Key, Harnessed Soul Gem, Tserrina's Symbol

Good luck [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Using the 1 in 20 drop rate for the Robe as programed in p99, getting 3 Robes in 7 kills would happen 0.013% of the time. Or, a tiny bit better than 1 in 10,000 times.

Either this was the luckiest group in EQ history or the p99 rate is wrong.

Zentile

[Zentile]

0 Robes in 58 kills now. Did this get patched by chance? I'm starting to give up hope.

Zentile

[nilbog]

Nothing has changed about Tserrina's drop rates since Velious was introduced.

[Zentile]

Originally Posted by nilbog [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Nothing has changed about Tserrina's drop rates since Velious was introduced.

Thanks for the reply Nilbog, I appreciate you taking the time knowing that you have a few other things on your plate post-patch.

I believe that I've presented enough of an objective argument that the p99 Robe drop rate of 1 in 20 is not classic, so I have one last request. Can one of the Devs research her classic rates and either confirm that 1 in 20 is satisfactory, or change it to something more in-line with the Live experience?

Thanks again,

Zentile