A Statistical analysis of Charm Duration

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Goregasmic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Not sure how accurate that is but according to this eqemu npc scaling chart lvl52 named has 32 MR. Outside of mobs with abnormally high MR it would seem you could bottom out resists with tash on almost anything you can boltran. We don't know if the NPC resist floor is 0 or if going under 0 provides additional benefits to charm.


https://docs.eqemu.io/server/npc/npc-scaling/

Nice find on the doc. The floor is usually above zero because the random function generates a number between 0 and 1, like 0.33. That gets multiplied by the total number of dice faces. So 0.33 * 200 = 66.

[ewjax]

Originally Posted by charleski [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Ok, I levelled up to 53 and got Boltran's to test against a higher-level mob: Corundium, one of the L50 golems guarding the passage in the Overthere wall. An earlier attempt to use a guard at the East Cabilis gate failed miserably as it seems these are now 'newbie guards' and resist virtually everything. Many thanks to @bcbrown (Lakemist) for his help in acquiring these data (it would have been almost impossible to do solo).

TLDR: Charisma is now has a very significant effect.
Initial cast is disregarded and stats computed solely with regard to charm breaks.
Input data 1:
File: L53 Corundium CHA115.txt
Total trials: 92
p charm success (per tick): 0.7737
Wilson Score lower bound: 0.6609
Wilson Score upper bound: 0.8847
Input data 2:
File: L53 Corundium CHA226.txt
Total trials: 457
p charm success (per tick): 0.9454
Wilson Score lower bound: 0.9176
Wilson Score upper bound: 0.9726

probability difference: 0.1717

Newcombe-Wilson difference interval: -0.1161, 0.1144
Significant at 99% level

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You'll notice that the number of trials is far fewer than in the previous example with the EJ spurbone. This was largely because attempting to keep the mob charmed with a CHA of 115 was almost impossible. A charm was attempted 32 times for each condition (CHA 115 or 226). With CHA 115 the maximum charm length was 10 ticks, and charm frequently broke after only 1 or 2 ticks, meaning we had to keep it rooted while I medded up to cast another expensive (400mana) Boltran's. With CHA226 the maximum charm duration was 60 ticks and I was frequently able to med up to full in between charm breaks.

Another notable feature is that in both conditions I noticed a significant number of resists on the initial cast of charm. There were 13 initial resists with CHA115 and 10 initial resists with CHA226 (out of 32 attempts for each). This difference was not statistically significant, but a lot higher than seen in my previous data set on the EJ Spurbone (2 resists out of 30 attempts at CHA115; 0 resists out of 18 attempts at CHA226).

Clearly some charisma modifier has been switched on when attempting to charm this L50 mob. This was either turned off for the lower-level mobs, or had such a weak effect that its presence was insignificant. For comparison, I plotted the 95% interval ranges for the orc pawn, EJ spurbone and L50 Corundium, all at a CHA of 115. There is obviously a very non-linear effect at play here:
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The question now is whether this is a function of the absolute mob level or the level difference between mob and caster. Since this is a static and repeatable mob, I'll go back and repeat the test when I get to 60, whioch might provide some answer.

I've updated the parsing programs (attached) to accommodate Allure and Boltran's, and also added a boolean switch in each of them which allows you to include the success or failure of the initial charm cast in the statistics. For the purposes of this analysis, this was turned off.

This is really excellent work, thanks for pulling this together and sharing! Coincidentally, recently some of us were mulling over similar questions about charm duration and discussing it in the Enchanter channel in our guild discord, and I thought I might share some thoughts / ideas here:

1) Probability of Charm Duration

If the charm-break check is being performed every tick, then I believe the math associated with that check is given by:

pd(n) = (1-p)^n

where

pd(n) = probability that charm duration will achieve 'n' ticks
p = probability that charm will fail on any given check
n = number of successive charm break checks

This equation generates this graph, which matches exactly with both the PREDICTED graphs generated by OP, as well the MEASURED histograms also generated by OP. Really cool that the measured histogram data matches the prediction so nicely.

2) Inferring Mob Level from Max Melee Values

To help quantify the level difference topic, OP might be able to tighten up charmed-mob level estimates by using this equation, which correlates mob level with its observed max melee values:

Mob Level <= 30: Level = MaxMelee / 2.0
Mob Level >= 30: Level = (MaxMelee + 60) / 4.0

This works reasonably well on most exp mobs up thru Kunark, and some of Velious, although exceptions begin to creep in here and there (giants, spectres, some Hole mobs, some Juggs in Seb, etc)

But you might be able to use this to tighten up your estimate of mob level, and thus the assessment on impacts from level difference.

3) Suggestions for other higher level charm targets

Agree, Corundium is tough, his charm break data seems to vary quite a bit from other mobs, to the point I have wondered if he has some special case coding going on or something.

Suggest the two level 50 giants in FM as possible candidates (although they are often camped by exp grinders).

https://wiki.project1999.com/Mentrax_Mountainbone
https://wiki.project1999.com/Eldak_Howlingbear

I have used them for levelling, I will see if I can run some tests and share the data here.

4) Other Discussion

If we hypothesize that p, the probability of charm break on any given tick, is a function of the three variables mentioned, i.e.

p = f(level diff, CHA, MR)

then the challenge is to try to measure that, using your handy parsing code, or infer it from reading the EQEmu source code and hoping that is representative of the P99 source code.

Trying to infer it from the EQEmu source code is pretty tough. My opinion, that code is a snake pit, mostly uncommented, full of special cases and difficult to understand code. I've tried to read it and it's tough sledding. But maybe other folks might have better luck.

[Goregasmic]

If you want to test mobs of a particular level loramin came up with this list, post #49

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...=437358&page=5

Some quest mobs might be tougher than usual so might want to check them out on the wiki first.

I know chardok has some static-level 53s like di'zok cryptmaster you could borderline charm with boltran. Shouldn't be too long to get a bunch of samples in at 53 but unlike the low level mobs that are too tame to let charisma make a difference, it is possible the 53s are too unruly to see a noticeable difference too.

My chanter is 85% into 59. I'll be able to do some testing relatively soon.

[commongood]

Thanks a bunch to the OP for all the hard work and to the rest of you data-heads for all the great input.

Just a curiousity: why are we using Boltran's to charm a lvl 50 mob? Why not use Allure and save mana?

Also, Boltran's entrance on the wiki states much shorter maximum duration (~7 mins vs, for instance Cajoling Whispers and Allure both of whom are ~20 mins max duration).
I don't know how these maximum durations have been established and it could well be that Boltran's is exclusively used on lvl 51+ mobs why are always much closer to the caster's own level and thus will generally not last as long. But it could be that Boltran's works differently from the previous spells in that line.

[kjs86z2]

cast time

can recharm on a stun without having to mez

[Goregasmic]

Originally Posted by kjs86z2 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

cast time

can recharm on a stun without having to mez

You can do it too with allure and a gcd reset on a 8sec stun if you're quick enough.

[spoil]

Allure is a 6-second cast time so it's not that tight, unless you don't have keybinds and you're clicking your spells or something. But Boltrans can also be useful when fighting a mob that's immune to stun, less opportunity for your recharm to get interrupted.

[commongood]

Originally Posted by kjs86z2 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

cast time

can recharm on a stun without having to mez

I didn't mean in general, I meant specifically for this experiment. I understand using Boltran's in live scenarios with high level mobs where the reduced cast time matters. But for testing it seems the extra mana cost is a meaningful burden.

[enjchanter]

Originally Posted by kjs86z2 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

the AI is getting pretty good

also thats a lot of words to say (your level vs mob level) > MR > 255 cha...something that has been known for decades now

and to suggest enc start STR is absurd...even if its a trivial difference in charm durations ill still take it to decrease lull crit fails

^^