Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by Troxx [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Look man he already spelled it out for you very comprehensively:

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=531

It is absolutely ok to admit it went over your head. I imagine that level of math would go over most college educated adults heads.

You aren’t going to win a math fight with a senior engineer bro

A title means nothing if you still cannot do the math correctly. Argument from authority is a fallacy.

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...&postcount=538 - This is how proc chance works on P99. If it didn't, you couldn't use "Procs Per Minute" as an accurate metric. If your DEX gives you 2 procs per minute, you get 2 procs per minute on average, assuming you never stop auto attacking. There will be fights where you get 0 procs, and fights where you get 4 procs, but it will average out to 2 procs on average.

[bcbrown]

Let's simplify the problem a little, and assume there's only three swings in the fight, they happen 8 seconds apart, and each swing has a 1/12 chance of a proc.

Using Y for a proc and N for no proc, there's 2^3 or eight possible outcomes:
YYY
YYN
YNY
YNN
NYY
NYN
NNY
NNN

In each of these eight outcomes, how much total damage does the proc do?

[Troxx]

Bcbrown’s masterclass is in session!

/popcorn

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Let's simplify the problem a little, and assume there's only three swings in the fight, they happen 8 seconds apart, and each swing has a 1/12 chance of a proc.

Using Y for a proc and N for no proc, there's 2^3 or eight possible outcomes:
YYY
YYN
YNY
YNN
NYY
NYN
NNY
NNN

In each of these eight outcomes, how much total damage does the proc do?

You are thinking about the problem incorrectly.

Proccing is the exact same concept as rolling a D12 twelve times in a row and hoping for one specific number one time. Worst case you get the number after 12 rolls, best case you get the number after 1 roll.

Average is rolling 6.5 times to get the specific number you want.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Proccing is the exact same concept as rolling a D12 twelve times in a row and hoping for one specific number one time. Worst case you get the number after 12 rolls, best case you get the number after 1 roll.

If you're hoping for a 1, and you roll a D12 twelve times, you are not guaranteed to get a 1.

This is because each roll is independent. Rolling eleven 12s doesn't change the probability that the next roll is a 1.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you're hoping for a 1, and you roll a D12 twelve times, you are not guaranteed to get a 1.

Of course not! But on average if you roll a d12 twelve times, you will get a 1 at least once. I never said it is a guarantee. I said it is the average.

You don't seem to realize that the other DPS values in my example are calculated in the exact same way. If you disagree with the proc rate average, then you must also disagree with all of the other average DPS's in the example, and change them too. You do not get to cherry pick one number and change it simply to make your side look better.

[Duik]

So doc brown is saying 2ppm may be true (over the whole liftime of everything) but he is trying to determine the difference and chances of a proc happening AND at what point in a short battle it happens?
Each 2 mims there could be a proc but just cuz there is none dont mean one will come next minute.
Just cuz there is a proc this minute dont mean there wont be one again that minute. They are seperate entities unreliant on each other.

I -- edit-- DONT --edit-- fully get his math but im getting the difference between 2ppm and the statistical chances of and distribution of proc(s) during a battle of x length.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Of course not! But on average if you roll a d12 twelve times, you will get a 1 at least once. I never said it is a guarantee. I said it is the average.

You don't seem to realize that the other DPS values in my example are calculated in the exact same way. If you disagree with the proc rate average, then you must also disagree with all of the other average DPS's in the example, and change them too. You do not get to cherry pick one number and change it simply to make your side look better.

The proc rate is the only calculation where the damage from a successful event is not independent on prior events. This is the point you're failing to understand.

Every other damage calculation is independent. The damage of the second Winter's Roar is independent of the first Winter's Roar. The damage done by a second proc is not independent of whether the first swing procced.

Duik gets it.

[Troxx]

Truth: you will have lots of fights with no procs at all
Truth: you will have lots of fights with lots of procs
Truth: the nature of this proc is that it does not stack additively to add extra value
Truth: some fights you will proc early.
Truth some fights you will proc very late

It is truth 3 specifically that is going to hose you. If the proc was a raw 500+ DD it would indeed average with time. Those fights where you went ham with early and frequent procs would result in a measurably shorter kill time. But if you score an early proc it is not like any subsequent procs will add more than the tiny DD component.

Bcbrown’s analysis is correct. Understanding it requires fluency in these mathematical principles. I will admit I’m nowhere near as fluent in this realm as bcbrown … but I’m also not an engineer or a mathematician.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The proc rate is the only calculation where the damage from a successful event is not independent on prior events. This is the point you're failing to understand.

Every other damage calculation is independent. The damage of the second Winter's Roar is independent of the first Winter's Roar. The damage done by a second proc is not independent of whether the first swing procced.

That is what you are missing. Proc rate is also independent, because proc rate isn't affected by whether or not you land a hit on the mob. You just need to SWING. This means it works the same way as melee combat.

When you swing, let's say you have a 50% chance to hit or miss. At the same exact time that you swing, you have a 12% chance to proc the weapon. There is nothing more complicated going on. They are both independent dice rolls that trigger on a per swing basis.