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  #101  
Old 12-04-2020, 08:10 PM
Lune Lune is offline
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Posting in a gambling thread

hope u guys win at the slots
  #102  
Old 12-04-2020, 11:33 PM
Gwaihir Gwaihir is offline
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That's not bad, as long as you're selling the calls at a price you'd be happy to walk away from the security with.

Looking at the weekly, it looks like they're pricing the premium of a 10% upward move at 3 to 3.5% in premiums
  #103  
Old 12-05-2020, 12:10 AM
Gwaihir Gwaihir is offline
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Speaking of covered calls. It looks like I'll be walking away from 300 shares of dfen. Got em at 10.86 3 or 4 months ago. sold 3*17$ calls at 1.45 each.

Net gain 7.59 x 300 = 2257 on 3268 invested sans transaction fees, in a Roth of course
  #104  
Old 12-05-2020, 12:23 AM
Gwaihir Gwaihir is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwaihir [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
That's not bad, as long as you're selling the calls at a price you'd be happy to walk away from the security with.

Looking at the weekly, it looks like they're pricing the premium of a 10% upward move at 3 to 3.5% in premiums

Btw, with the ln 2 being .683, a 3.25 weekly compounding growth interval requires

.0325/.683 weeks to double, so your doubling rate for premium:equity itself is just under 26 weeks, or 6 months.

That's not considering equity growth as well, if it doesn't progress more than 10% and force you to sell the shares on the call expiring in the money
  #105  
Old 12-05-2020, 01:01 AM
imperiouskitten imperiouskitten is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Posting in a gambling thread

hope u guys win at the slots
hurrr alibaba defaly big risk of depreciate

*withdraws poppy cash from trust fund*
  #106  
Old 12-05-2020, 10:08 AM
Lune Lune is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imperiouskitten [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
hurrr alibaba defaly big risk of depreciate

*withdraws poppy cash from trust fund*
Everybody is always sure their strategy is going to lead them to $$$. Very few ever actually outperform the S&P 500 long term.

But hey, nothing wrong with that-- gambling is fun, you're paying for an experience. Just hope you're well situated when the market corrects for artificial inflation from fed's easy money policies. The house always wins.

Also all my suppliers went dark. You want to invest in something, invest in some fuckin UK poppy seeds and sell em to junkies for $30 a pound.
  #107  
Old 12-05-2020, 06:55 PM
imperiouskitten imperiouskitten is offline
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Firstly, it's not zero-sum. House does not always win; this is a fallacious statement.

Secondly, you're not wrong about the rest, but you've also hit the nail on the head. Sitting money in savings is shortsighted when current policy is to sacrifice civilization to ensure the Grand Casino is no-lose. There will be a bonk one day, before things start multiplying again, but if things carry on 3 more years my cash will appreciate probably 300% and I'll get out with most of it. Furthermore, the individual is not the average and my "bets" are backed up with realistic political science while the average is governed by TV info and consensus delusionality. Me & Juris are meta-players. "Everyone thinks this", and shit does happen, but not everyone is as intelligent, insightful, or accurately predictive as we are. "Everyone" doesn't have reality remind them again and again that they are very exceptionally intelligent. We've got good odds and the fact that there are odds involved does not invalidate the venture. The world and all ventures comprise one big statistical matrix.

Stop loss orders are in that ensure I will never have lost money in this venture. I would think a person of mathematical worldview would understand that we've crossed a point of singularity into which it's quite foolish to not be involved in multiplying your cash in the rigged market. Sounds like you have an ideological position on it, not scientific. Anyway, my lot in life until certain (very healthy -_-) ppl die is not to eat a trust but to generate one, and I'll be damned if I go back to wage employment. 5% returns on my capital just ain't gonna do it.
Last edited by imperiouskitten; 12-05-2020 at 07:14 PM..
  #108  
Old 12-05-2020, 08:05 PM
Lune Lune is offline
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I'm just troleing, hope you have the best of luck with ur card counting to the extent that luck is involved with it.

My concern is everywhere you go these days everyone is participating in these day trades like a viral meme. Last time this happened, just before the Great Depression, JFK's daddy witnessed his shoeshine boy talking about his stock plays, perceived the market was overvaluated, walked right down to the stock exchange and took all his money out. Saved himself a gory suicide. 2007-2009 bear market was predictable (my big daddy predicted it), as was the Great Depression. But some shocks simply aren't... 9/11, the corona, Black Monday, etc. But I guess as long as you get your money out before it pits.... I have the luxury of not worrying about such things.
  #109  
Old 12-05-2020, 08:21 PM
imperiouskitten imperiouskitten is offline
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*pats ur head* goodboy
  #110  
Old 01-18-2021, 12:58 PM
Gwaihir Gwaihir is offline
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Ok, here we are. 4.5 months later. Doing a recap on Nikola:

with 4050 invested as of the date this thread debate started on selling Puts vs buying Nikola Stock outright, the stock price of 32.50$ indicated I couldve bought 124 shares for 4050, but rather I sold 3x 17.50 puts for a January 15th expiration.

Approximately 6 weeks ago, when the Nikola stock rebounded from a 17$ low back up to 30$ I bought 3 offsetting 17.50 puts to close the position, and then re-entered the position with 3x 17.50 after the stock cratered back down to below 20$


4.5 months later. Options expired worthless last friday at 19.80 closing price.

Total cash-out: 5850$ (gain of 1800$; gain of 45%)

vs what I would have if left if I wouldve bought 124 shares:

$2467 (Loss of 1582; Loss of 39%)

What I would have left if I wouldve Bought at 32.50, closed position at 30$, and rebought at the 17$ cratered price:
$4332.70 (gain of 6.9%)
In your fucking face retard. I win.
Last edited by Gwaihir; 01-18-2021 at 01:00 PM..
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