Hadden

[Vallaen]

Originally Posted by eqravenprince [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

17 in a row no earring

the 18th time is the lucky charm

[chaser95]

i can agree with this when i used to farm it on blue had pole or earring no in between and now in the last two weeks ive done different rotations on him 9-12 straight and nothing and even the people before me and after are getting the same results something has been changed just my 2 cents.

[eqravenprince]

Finally got it on the 18th try... I still say something ain't right.

[eqravenprince]

Next spawn is at 5:57:25 CST. My list is below in order, Jhenfer and Weydan not online. Tecla is aware, but not sure he'll be on at that time.

Tecla
Jhenfer
Weydan

[fastboy21]

The trick to camping items like this in EQ is all mental...if you can force yourself to only think about what you're going to do with the item when you get it you'll prosper; if you start letting thoughts in about how much of your life you're wasting at a stupid camp inside a video game you're likely to jump off a bridge.

[TomisFeline]

Originally Posted by Bardp1999 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the erroneous belief that if a particular event occurs more frequently than normal during the past it is less likely to happen in the future (or vice versa), when it has otherwise been established that the probability of such events does not depend on what has happened in the past. Such events, having the quality of historical independence, are referred to as statistically independent. The fallacy is commonly associated with gambling, where it may be believed, for example, that the next dice roll is more than usually likely to be six because there have recently been less than the usual number of sixes.

you unfortunately applied this incorrectly here. Understandable mixup. If he asked 'on the nth spawn, what are the chances - understanding it hasn't spawned yet' your post would be helpful and point out a fallacy.

but he asked, knowing the drop rate, what the probability is of the drop happening, given n chances for it to drop.

see other posts.

[skorge]

i camped Hadden very early in Green when there was zero competition and I never got an earring, i ended up buying one for like 1500p way back then...and I never missed a pop for days...lost track of how many Haddens but it was a LOT. The guy i bought the earring from had already got 3 to drop, so it's pure RNG...just bad luck

[HalflingSpergand]

I used to be unemployed too


But then i opened a morgue to deal with all the coivid 911 bodies
$$$$$ wooh9o

[cd288]

Rare drop is rare = “something must be bugged!”

[loramin]

Originally Posted by cd288 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Rare drop is rare = “something must be bugged!”

Well I think the confusing part was that it used to be "pole or earring", and that stopped being the case at a similar time as a string of bad rolls.

But in positive news I can confirm I just picked up my earring for my Green toon today; miracles do happen [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]