Game Mechanics: AC may not be working correctly

[Splorf22]

I did this test for the SK shield thread. The error bars aren't small enough to be really sure (and I'm not going to do the 3 hour test that would require) but the basic point is that equipping a 40AC shield was somewhere between worthless and actively bad for mitigation even over a decently sized test. 40 item ac (70 displayed AC) is a huge, huge amount: it's basically the equivalent to wearing a Kunark tank BP and going commando.

Originally Posted by Loraen

I did a test with Sakuragi vs the Cliff Golem in OT with and without the Shield of Elders (40 item AC). Both tests were about 5 minutes and had about 150 hits with various damage values. I then bootstrapped the data (my new favorite technique) to get:

1120: mean: 113.5 +- 3.4 [95% CI: 106.6 120.4]
1050: mean: 111.3 +- 3.9 [95% CI: 103.6 119.1]
1120 > 1050: 66.7%

What this means is that with 1120AC, I expect the average hit to be around 113.5 and almost certainly in the range 106-120. With 1050AC, I expect the average hit to be 111.3 (yes, this is LESS. I double checked to make sure I didn't mix up the parses) and almost certainly in the range 104-119. The probability that you will take more damage with 1120 AC is 67%.

The variance in this data is quite high. From what I understand, hits are either min, max, or a purely random hit in between. So I modified the data appropriately, which removes some of the randomness:

Replacing any number not 48 or 172 by 109.5
1120: mean: 111.8 +- 2.6 [95% CI: 106.6 117.1]
1050: mean: 111.5 +- 3.0 [95% CI: 105.6 117.5]
1120 > 1050: 52.0%

Thus we can see that the 1050 parse was a bit luckier on the damage interval hits, but the variance is still quite large. The variance goes down as the square root of the number of samples, so we'd need about 50 times as much data (3 hours with each configuration) to get a confidence interval with a size of +- 1. Needless to say, I don't think I can rent Coeur for 6 hours.

My conclusions:
1. Someone not named Sakuragi should tank the cliff golem for a few hours
2. Pasi is correct; for raids HP >> AC. Not only is the average value of AC quite small, but you care about about the worst case more. Based on this test if you are a main tank I would not give up even one HP for additional AC. This is actually good news for Iksar warriors!
3. Even if AC is working correctly (which is only a 50% chance according to this data, heh) the benefit of a ridiculous +40AC shield is very unlikely to be more than a few percent for high-level mobs.

Of course, all of this may be different for xp mobs with lower attack values. For reference, without the shield Sakuragi has about 170 raw item AC.

[Handull]

Is there an AC hardcap or softcap on p99 that makes a 40ac shield useless? Should there be such a soft/hardcap if one exists?

[Splorf22]

/GU Tanking summary for: Sakuragi --- Total damage: 99562 --- Avg hit: 83 --- Swings: 2837 --- Defended: 368 (13%) --- Hit: 1186 (41.8%) --- Missed: 1283 (45.2%) --- Accuracy: 48% --- Dodged: 111 (4.3%) --- Parried: 162 (5.7%) --- Blocked: 0 (0%) --- Riposted: 95 (3.6%) --- Absorbed: 0 (0%)

/GU Tanking summary for: Lavarian --- Total damage: 21748 --- Avg hit: 73 --- Swings: 604 --- Defended: 36 (6%) --- Hit: 296 (49%) --- Missed: 272 (45%) --- Accuracy: 52.1% --- Dodged: 15 (2.6%) --- Parried: 7 (1.2%) --- Blocked: 0 (0%) --- Riposted: 11 (1.8%) --- Absorbed: 3 (0.5%)

/GU Tanking summary for: Winajil --- Total damage: 6087 --- Avg hit: 86 --- Swings: 112 --- Defended: 0 (0%) --- Hit: 70 (62.5%) --- Missed: 42 (37.5%) --- Accuracy: 62.5% --- Dodged: 0 (0%) --- Parried: 0 (0%) --- Blocked: 0 (0%) --- Riposted: 0 (0%) --- Absorbed: 0 (0%)

So basically from a mitigation standpoint a L60 bard does better than I do by 15%; in fact a L58 shaman is almost as good. My warrior gets hit at exactly the same rate as well. In fact from a per swing standpoint he takes almost exactly the same damage as a bard (worse mitigation vs higher dodge/riposte/etc), so the only difference is higher hp. I'm also surprised that he was missed at exactly the same rate: I would think the iksar bonus (supposedly to avoidance) and higher defensive skills would be at work here as well.

edit: Also I just looked at Lavarian's wiki page and it shows about 153AC of gear. I'm guessing that he wasn't wearing his resist gear; if not we could give him another +20 for 173, which would put him about the same as Sakuragi. But its not like he had some huge mitigation bonus.

Again, these kind of parses just don't add up. The steel warrior ubermob tanking guide http://www.thesteelwarrior.org/forum...hread.php?t=13 suggests that 100AC should be good for a 3-4% damage reduction against a high-level dragon; I would think it would be more against something like the cliff golem.

[Tecmos Deception]

And to think you told me I should make a warrior alt!

[Splorf22]

Originally Posted by Tecmos Deception [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

And to think you told me I should make a warrior alt!

They are fun anyway!

Originally Posted by Writ3r

AC has been known to be broken on here for years my friend, but good you are getting it down to the nitty gritty

Well technically, as an Iksar Warrior, I'm likely to get worse if they ever fix it [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Also it occurred to me that I did tank High Scale Kirn (max hit =400) so I went back and removed everything from the parse except revenants and wanderers. Results:

/GU Tanking summary for: Sakuragi --- Total damage: 80275 --- Avg hit: 84 --- Swings: 2159 --- Defended: 271 (12.6%) --- Hit: 950 (44%) --- Missed: 938 (43.4%) --- Accuracy: 50.3% --- Dodged: 79 (4%) --- Parried: 119 (5.5%) --- Blocked: 0 (0%) --- Riposted: 73 (3.6%) --- Absorbed: 0 (0%)

/GU Tanking summary for: Lavarian --- Total damage: 18491 --- Avg hit: 77 --- Swings: 453 --- Defended: 29 (6.4%) --- Hit: 239 (52.8%) --- Missed: 185 (40.8%) --- Accuracy: 56.4% --- Dodged: 13 (3%) --- Parried: 5 (1.1%) --- Blocked: 0 (0%) --- Riposted: 9 (2%) --- Absorbed: 2 (0.4%)

Mitigation doesn't really change, but at least my warrior is getting hit a bit less now.

[Adolphus]

Can confirm that AC is broken. Rolled a paladin in live in the same era and the mitigation for a paladin on p1999 isn't even close. It's not just slightly off - it's way, way off here.

[Splorf22]

Bumping this despitethe fact that my iksar warrior might get worse. Was talking to Sentenza, and he saying that he feels as an Iksar SK he tanks just as well as a 'normal' SK despite a lack of some 100 AC. And he did win the BOTB despite what should have been a moderately decent handicap.

[Zapatos]

How does your damage taken change if your character is naked vs being fully equipped in AC gear? Maybe that sort of parse was already posted somewhere but it seems like that would be a smoking gun to your argument.

[Splorf22]

I mean I'm sure there is some code in the server that is a function of AC and is related to mitigation. I just don't think its working correctly.

For example if Lavarian and I both have the same item AC, I would think that as a warrior I would take less damage than him owing to my higher defense skill. Instead he's taking less than me. And we haven't even mentioned my iksar AC bonus which in theory should be doing . . . something.

Also we know from the Steel Warriors post that 100 AC should be 3-4% damage reduction vs a L70 boss. So a 40AC shield (70 displayed ac) should be 2-3% vs a L70 boss and I'm guessing much higher against a lower level mob like the cliff golem . . . say 5%, maybe even a bit more. For example, the warrior guide recommends AC. There is simply no way people would figure this kind of stuff out without parsers unless stacking AC really could reduce your damage by 10% or more.

Or read the enchanter guide. He seems seriously concerned about one hasted (not dual wielding) pet. Maybe thats because enchanters mitigate too well here? If cloth casters took even 10% more damage per hit that would make a bit difference in enchanter soloing which I know everyone hates.

[Tecmos Deception]

Originally Posted by Splorf22 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Or read the enchanter guide. He seems seriously concerned about one hasted (not dual wielding) pet. Maybe thats because enchanters mitigate too well here? If cloth casters took even 10% more damage per hit that would make a bit difference in enchanter soloing which I know everyone hates.

Xorn's enchanter guide?