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  #111  
Old 02-05-2023, 05:11 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Originally Posted by ya.dingus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Because that reductionist math doesn't reflect the actual probability of being stunned in combat?

What you need to do is calculate the chance a bash has to actually stun in a successful bash pool.

Then you calculate how many secondary attacks you will encounter in a given timespan, taking into the effect the type of mob, because Pets and warriors bash more frequently than other mobs which is the best rate you're going to get on FSI actually being good
https://wiki.project1999.com/Game_Mechanics


Then if you want to actually be accurate for you situation, you need to separate those by slowed vs non-slowed mobs secondary attack rates and do your calcs for each.


Then finally, you calculate by the total percentage you will actually be bashed that will result in a stun for the given window of time you are in melee combat with said mob before it is slowed (this is for shaman).

Do you see how the number keeps reducing every layer of calculation you do? It's not 25% to actually have FSI come in clutch for you.
Um, you're the one who posted https://wiki.project1999.com/Sakuragi%27s_Warrior_Guide . That is where you got the 5% number from lol. If you think the article is wrong, then you have admitted this evidence isn't valid for your argument.

So please show your "non reductionist" math that is clearly superior.

I can math out precisely how much HP you get per hour with Troll Regen at 60. It's 4800 HP per hour max, assuming your never full. Thats 1.5 minutes saved per hour on not casting 3 Torpors. Most Shamans are not going to be able to capitalize on that 1.5 minute savings, because spawn timers usually limit how many mobs you can kill. 60 Shamans aren't generally chain killing mobs, and you still haven't provided a camp a 60 Torpor Shaman is going to do where they will actually use that 1.5 minute savings.

Again, my example of Cliff Golems shows a Troll would not save any time with Regeneration, because Cliff Golems are a single spawn on a 6 minute timer, and it only takes 3 minutes to Torpor back to full.
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  #112  
Old 02-05-2023, 05:14 PM
ya.dingus ya.dingus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Um, you're the one who posted https://wiki.project1999.com/Sakuragi%27s_Warrior_Guide . That is where you got the 5% number from lol. If you think the article is wrong, then you have admitted this evidence isn't valid for your argument.

So please show your "non reductionist" math that is clearly superior.

I can math out precisely how much HP you get per hour with Troll Regen at 60. It's 4800 HP per hour max, assuming your never full. Thats 1.5 minutes saved per hour on not casting 3 Torpors. Most Shamans are not going to be able to capitalize on that 1.5 minute savings, because spawn timers usually limit how many mobs you can kill. 60 Shamans aren't generally chain killing mobs, and you still haven't provided a camp a 60 Torpor Shaman is going to do where they will actually use that 1.5 minute savings.

Again, my example of Cliff Golems shows a Troll would not save any time with Regeneration, because Cliff Golems are a single spawn on a 6 minute timer, and it only takes 3 minutes to Torpor back to full.
Where did i say the article is wrong? I said your calculation of 20% was wrong.

I can't tell if you're just being disingenuous again, or you can't read.
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  #113  
Old 02-05-2023, 05:20 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ya.dingus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Where did i say the article is wrong? I said your calculation of 20% was wrong.

I can't tell if you're just being disingenuous again, or you can't read.
If you think the article is right, then my 20% math is right, and your 5% idea is wrong. From the article https://wiki.project1999.com/Sakuragi%27s_Warrior_Guide :

Quote:
From a min-max perspective, Ogres are clearly the best. Aside from having the best stats, a quick back-of-the-envelope estimate shows the value of stun immunity: mobs get their secondary attack every 8 seconds, bash instead instead of kick 75% of the time, hit 50% of the time, and stun 50% of their hits. So if the mob isn't hasted you'll be spending roughly 2 seconds out of 40 (5%) of your time stunned.
Bash is 75% of the time, so you can round to 80% for easy math, that is what the article does. That is why he says you are stunned roughly 2 seconds out of 40. A single stun is 2 seconds. 8 seconds x 5 secondary attacks = 40 seconds, so you get 1 stun every 40 seconds on average. That is 20% chance to be stunned per secondary attack.
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  #114  
Old 02-05-2023, 06:14 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ya.dingus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Where did i say the article is wrong?
To answer this specific question:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ya.dingus [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Also it's less than 7 out of 10 attacks will result in a bash when kick is available.
If you are going to make this claim, then you are admitting the article is inaccurate, because the article claims 75% of secondary attacks are bashes.

From the article https://wiki.project1999.com/Sakuragi%27s_Warrior_Guide :

Quote:
Ogres are clearly the best. Aside from having the best stats, a quick back-of-the-envelope estimate shows the value of stun immunity: mobs get their secondary attack every 8 seconds, bash instead instead of kick 75% of the time, hit 50% of the time, and stun 50% of their hits.
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  #115  
Old 02-05-2023, 06:37 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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I took a look at my monks logs, I have all his combat logs from level 28 to 40. All of these mobs are unslowed.

The mobs landed a bash 1791 times, and missed their bashes 2263 times.

The mobs landed a kick 798 times, and missed their kicks 999 times.

1791 + 2263 + 798 + 999 = 5851 secondary attacks.

Total bashes = 4056

5851 * 0.75 = 4388

Based on this data, I can safely say the chance to bash is still 75%.

The number of times I was stunned is 598 times, so it looks like the chance to be stunned is 10%.
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  #116  
Old 02-05-2023, 06:47 PM
Jimjam Jimjam is online now
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I don’t like using the phrase ‘secondary’ to mean kick/bash as it is also the name of the slot used to make dual wield attacks. Is there another phrase we could use?
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Last edited by Jimjam; 02-05-2023 at 06:52 PM..
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  #117  
Old 02-05-2023, 06:50 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimjam [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
I don’t like using the phrase ‘secondary’ to mean kick/bash as it is also the name of the soot used to make dual wield attacks. Is there another phrase we could use?
I am not sure actually. I was using Sakuragi's terminology since we were discussing his article, but I don't know if there is a more official word for it.
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  #118  
Old 02-05-2023, 08:41 PM
DeathsSilkyMist DeathsSilkyMist is offline
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Did a bit of a deeper dive. I have years of logs, so I can simply check how often I am getting bashed, stunned and kicked. This data is from 2018 to present.

 

Troll SK 55-58
===============
448 total stuns from bashes

6519 successful bashes

12040 missed bashes

2262 successful kicks

4678 missed kicks

Human Enchanter 13-30
=======================
452 total stuns from bashes

1313 successful bashes

830 missed bashes

567 successful kicks

356 missed kicks

Gnome Warrior 1-24
==================

377 total stuns from bashes

1408 successful bashes

1812 missed bashes

578 successful kicks

733 missed kicks

Iksar Monk 10-40
=================

1471 total stuns from bashes

4058 successful bashes

4529 missed bashes

1878 successful kicks

2116 missed kicks

Ogre Shaman 60 (has more log data than all of the characters above combined)
==============

507 total stuns. This number isn't very accurate when it comes to stuns from bashes, because this character specifically is fighting casters a lot. I also have a lot of raid logs here, which means I am in a lot more situations where I am getting hit from behind.

7876 successful bashes

11946 missed bashes

3066 successful kicks

4343 missed kicks

Data totals
========

Total stuns (non Ogre) = 2748

total successful bashes (non Ogre) = 13298

total missed bashes (non Ogre) = 19,211

Chance to be stunned = 2748/13298 = 0.2066 x 100 = 20%

Total Bashes (non Ogre) = 32509

Total Kicks (non Ogre) = 13208

Total Bashes/Kicks = 45717

45717 X 0.75 = 34287
45717 X 0.70 = 32001

Due to 32509 being close to 32001, it looks like it is a 70% chance to land a bash, not 75%.


In conclusion there is a 70% chance to be bashed per bash/kick attempt, and a 20% chance to be stunned on a bash hit.

Bashes landed 70% of the time, so the total chance of being stunned per bash/kick attempt is 14% (20 x 0.7) while the mob is unslowed, every 8 seconds.
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  #119  
Old 02-06-2023, 04:09 AM
Jimjam Jimjam is online now
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Hmmm i think the stun rate isn’t fixed.

I don’t recall ever having an LDC stunning my 59 warrior (half elf) on red. I only remember getting stunned on hits to the rear when training out the zone.

The person could be right whom said stun chance may depend on level difference.
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  #120  
Old 02-06-2023, 10:58 AM
Toxigen Toxigen is offline
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imagine arguing about 1999 game racials over a beautiful weekend
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