Skillup Rate RNG

[PabloEdvardo]

I've been maxing casting skills on my Ogre SK every level for a while now.

I recently got 46 which is when casting skills finally cap at 235.

I spent about 10 minutes getting Abjuration from 230 to 235.

I spent about 10 minutes getting Divination from 230 to 234...

I've now cast Locate Corpse over 1421 times, and I have yet to get the last point in Divination.

Anyone else seen some extremely bad / strange skillup RNG?

This is the stuff that makes me feel like streaky RNG isn't just a rumor, but statistically evident.

[zillabunny]

Yeah jc is a nightmare I will get 3 skill ups in a row then dump 500 plat and get nothing on the next 15 combines

[fadetree]

the skill RNG being streaky is not just a rumor. You can see a repeated pattern even when it's moving along - you'll see 15-20 fails, then a short period where you get one to three skillups, then off on another long fail sequence.
I looked at the core RNG function that the EqEmu code is using, and it's just the usual perfectly good RNG call from the c++ std library using the "Mersenne Twister" algorithm. That is a good quality (i.e., not streaky) generator.
Assuming that the P99 code is probably using the same call, it means that the observed streakiness is not coming from the RNG. I think there almost certainly is some other processing going on underneath the hood that is affecting the results. I am planning to trace what all happens on a skill roll from the time the rng generates its number all the way up to when the skillup result happens to see if I can see any other stuff going on.

[Frug]

Originally Posted by fadetree [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

the skill RNG being streaky is not just a rumor. You can see a repeated pattern even when it's moving along - you'll see 15-20 fails, then a short period where you get one to three skillups, then off on another long fail sequence.
I looked at the core RNG function that the EqEmu code is using, and it's just the usual perfectly good RNG call from the c++ std library using the "Mersenne Twister" algorithm. That is a good quality (i.e., not streaky) generator.
Assuming that the P99 code is probably using the same call, it means that the observed streakiness is not coming from the RNG. I think there almost certainly is some other processing going on underneath the hood that is affecting the results. I am planning to trace what all happens on a skill roll from the time the rng generates its number all the way up to when the skillup result happens to see if I can see any other stuff going on.

Check fizzles while you're there. I know confirmation bias is hard to overcome, and I need to do some proper data analysis, but fizzling seems WAY MORE common after having fizzled once. I get 2, 3 fizzles in a row MORE often than just one, it feels like. Which for any RNG seems suspect, given the chance of a fizzle is less than half.

[Teppler]

If skill up rng isn’t so random and we accept this(and I agree) what does this mean for loot drops?

[cd288]

Originally Posted by fadetree [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

the skill RNG being streaky is not just a rumor. You can see a repeated pattern even when it's moving along - you'll see 15-20 fails, then a short period where you get one to three skillups, then off on another long fail sequence.
I looked at the core RNG function that the EqEmu code is using, and it's just the usual perfectly good RNG call from the c++ std library using the "Mersenne Twister" algorithm. That is a good quality (i.e., not streaky) generator.
Assuming that the P99 code is probably using the same call, it means that the observed streakiness is not coming from the RNG. I think there almost certainly is some other processing going on underneath the hood that is affecting the results. I am planning to trace what all happens on a skill roll from the time the rng generates its number all the way up to when the skillup result happens to see if I can see any other stuff going on.

Lol how is that not the definition of streaky? Streaky is just that, streaks of good and bad rather than it being randomly interspersed throughout. So you have a streak of fails, then you have a streak of a few skill ups.

[Tecmos Deception]

Originally Posted by cd288 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Lol how is that not the definition of streaky? Streaky is just that, streaks of good and bad rather than it being randomly interspersed throughout. So you have a streak of fails, then you have a streak of a few skill ups.

That IS the definition of streaky. The issue is that p99's RNG is disproportionately streaky when you look at the average % for different things to occur.

If something has a 50/50 chance of happening, then it will tend to not have streaks of 5+ very often. They'll happen, but you'll be able to predict quite accurately how often a streak of any given length will happen.

On p99, something that has a 50/50 chance of happening has streaks of whatever length too consistently for the RNG to actually be even close to actually random.

[Teppler]

Originally Posted by cd288 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Lol how is that not the definition of streaky? Streaky is just that, streaks of good and bad rather than it being randomly interspersed throughout. So you have a streak of fails, then you have a streak of a few skill ups.

It’s clearly non randomized streakiness because of what pretty much everyone has witnessed.

You get 3 skill ups over 3 seconds then nothing over minutes and that happens somewhat consistently. Who hasn’t experienced this... a lot? That is clearly not totally randomized over the longer time period. There’s some formula with variables.

[cd288]

Originally Posted by Tecmos Deception [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

That IS the definition of streaky. The issue is that p99's RNG is disproportionately streaky when you look at the average % for different things to occur.

If something has a 50/50 chance of happening, then it will tend to not have streaks of 5+ very often. They'll happen, but you'll be able to predict quite accurately how often a streak of any given length will happen.

On p99, something that has a 50/50 chance of happening has streaks of whatever length too consistently for the RNG to actually be even close to actually random.

Ah I misread their post and thought they said streakiness IS just a rumor. Gonna edit mine now lol

[Thelion]

The streakyness seems to occur on drop rates aswell. And FD fails. steaky rng