Miscellaneous: Potential Bug with No Manastones Dropping

[turbosilk]

Our groups had EE kills for manastones in beta and in talking with others that got manastones in green beta the drop rate was around 25%.


We've been killing the EE on green live using 1+ groups and have 14 kills with no manastone. At what sample size would it be reasonable to confirm the drops in green live are working as intended and not bugged?

We've confirmed that other list gear, jboots, dropped without using the /list.

[Erati]

Report back after 50 and 100 kills.

[Videri]

I am not a statistician, but I highly doubt that there were enough kills on beta to constitute a significant sample size. Not even close. I doubt the drop chance is 25%.

If the drop chance is 5%, the chance of no manastone in 14 kills is 48.77%.
If the drop chance is 10%, the chance of no manastone in 14 kills is 22.88%.
If the drop chance is 15%, the chance of no manastone in 14 kills is 10.28%.
If the drop chance is 20%, the chance of no manastone in 14 kills is 4.4%.

So depending on what the drop chance actually is (does anyone know?), there is a strong enough chance that it’s dropping normally and your luck has been bad.

Can I have a bag?

[Daldaen]

Most classic mobs drop their common 75% of the time and their rare 25% of the time. Some may lean more 80/20 some more 60/40 in the data, but 75/25 is a safe bet when it comes to classic EverQuest.

Manastone is something that existed so briefly when the game wasn’t very populated at the higher end, it’s impossible to find in era sources especially for something like drop rates.

I hope the devs just tried to follow other classic examples and put it at 25% chance.

[Videri]

If the drop chance is 25%, the chance of no manastone dropping in 14 kills is 1.78%.

Am I doing this right?
If chance of no stone in 1 kill = 75%
Chance of no stone in 2 kills = 75% x 75% = 56.25%
Chance of no stone in 3 kills =75% x 75% x 75% = 42.1875%
And so on

[turbosilk]

Originally Posted by Videri [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If the drop chance is 25%, the chance of no manastone dropping in 14 kills is 1.78%.

Am I doing this right?
If chance of no stone in 1 kill = 75%
Chance of no stone in 2 kills = 75% x 75% = 56.25%
Chance of no stone in 3 kills =75% x 75% x 75% = 42.1875%
And so on

Thank you for your input Videri. Based off the formula I found online it looks like your calculations are correct using 1-((1-x)^y).

[Videri]

Any rogues in the group? *sniffs the air for Borgnach*

[turbosilk]

Not yet. They don't want to eat the exp losses from deaths.

[Sahazar]

15/15 Bags

[Sahazar]

16 bags, no stone