Took 53 hours for EE to drop manastone on Teal

[aaezil]

Imagine doing all that for bad item

[kjs86z]

Originally Posted by racloon [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

5 right now. #1 going for 60hrs and 30mins now. had 10 Place Holders in a row. 5 hrs of no EE's.

This just ain't right.

consider blue

[Teppler]

What's the overall average time someone has to commit from start of the list to mana stone?

Like 24 hours? 36? The list itself has to have an average of like 24 hours right?

[Erati]

Originally Posted by Teppler [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

What's the overall average time someone has to commit from start of the list to mana stone?

Like 24 hours? 36? The list itself has to have an average of like 24 hours right?

expect 40-50 hours if you have avg luck for your total start to looting Manastone list time.

[WizardEQ]

Originally Posted by Erati [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

theres a couple data points for you in here

https://www.project1999.com/forums/s...d.php?t=342763

From this data, the probability that a manastone drops withing any 28 minute period is (5/152) or 3.3%, not the 5% previously stated.

If we do the calculation again, we get (1-0.033)^(53*60/28) = 2.2% chance.

So there is a 1-in-45 chance of a manastone NOT dropping in any 53 hour period.

[Erati]

Originally Posted by WizardEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

From this data, the probability that a manastone drops withing any 28 minute period is (5/152) or 3.3%, not the 5% previously stated.

If we do the calculation again, we get (1-0.033)^(53*60/28) = 2.2% chance.

So there is a 1-in-45 chance of a manastone NOT dropping in any 53 hour period.

Sounds ab right another math wiz at the camp concluded the Manastone EE spawn chance on a respawn is around 2%.

When you look at it that way rather than 1/X EE drop it, pretty depressing.

[WizardEQ]

From the Ataria data, there were 57 EE for 152 attempts, so that's 37.5% Let's assume 30% chance of an EE pop.

In those 57 pops, 5 stones dropped which is 8.8%. Let's assume there is a 10% chance of a manastone when the EE pops.

So the chance of a manastone dropping is 10% of 30%, or 0.10 x 0.30, which is 3%.

I think after all of our discussion, this is a pretty good estimate of the drop rate of a manastone at any 28 minute interval.

If we incorporate the binomial distribution, the chance of x manastones dropping in n attempts is:

P(x) = n(C)x * (0.97)^(n-x) * (0.03)^(x) where n(C)x = n!/((n-x)!*x!)

So the probability of 5 manastones dropping in 152 attempts is:

P(5) = 152(C)5 * (0.97)^(152-5) * (0.03)^(5) = 17.5%.


Since there are around 51 attempts in a day, here are the probabilities of the various amounts of manastones dropping within a 24 hour period:

P(0) = 51(C)0 * (0.97)^(51) * (0.03)^(0) = 21.2%.
P(1) = 51(C)1 * (0.97)^(50) * (0.03)^(1) = 33.4%.
P(2) = 51(C)2 * (0.97)^(49) * (0.03)^(2) = 25.8%.
P(3) = 51(C)3 * (0.97)^(48) * (0.03)^(3) = 13.0%.
P(4) = 51(C)4 * (0.97)^(47) * (0.03)^(4) = 4.8%.
P(5) = 51(C)5 * (0.97)^(46) * (0.03)^(5) = 1.4%.
P(6) = 51(C)6 * (0.97)^(45) * (0.03)^(6) = 0.3%.

Therefore, the expected number of manastones in a 24 period would be 1.522.

[Erati]

Originally Posted by WizardEQ [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

From the Ataria data, there were 57 EE for 152 attempts, so that's 37.5% Let's assume 30% chance of an EE pop.

In those 57 pops, 5 stones dropped which is 8.8%. Let's assume there is a 10% chance of a manastone when the EE pops.

So the chance of a manastone dropping is 10% of 30%, or 0.10 x 0.30, which is 3%.

I think after all of our discussion, this is a pretty good estimate of the drop rate of a manastone at any 28 minute interval.

If we incorporate the binomial distribution, the chance of x manastones dropping in n attempts is:

P(x) = n(C)x * (0.97)^(n-x) * (0.03)^(x) where n(C)x = n!/((n-x)!*x!)

So the probability of 5 manastones dropping in 152 attempts is:

P(5) = 152(C)5 * (0.97)^(152-5) * (0.03)^(5) = 17.5%.


Since there are around 51 attempts in a day, here are the probabilities of the various amounts of manastones dropping within a 24 hour period:

P(0) = 51(C)0 * (0.97)^(51) * (0.03)^(0) = 21.2%.
P(1) = 51(C)1 * (0.97)^(50) * (0.03)^(1) = 33.4%.
P(2) = 51(C)2 * (0.97)^(49) * (0.03)^(2) = 25.8%.
P(3) = 51(C)3 * (0.97)^(48) * (0.03)^(3) = 13.0%.
P(4) = 51(C)4 * (0.97)^(47) * (0.03)^(4) = 4.8%.
P(5) = 51(C)5 * (0.97)^(46) * (0.03)^(5) = 1.4%.
P(6) = 51(C)6 * (0.97)^(45) * (0.03)^(6) = 0.3%.

Therefore, the expected number of manastones in a 24 period would be 1.522.

well done

this all lines up with what I witnessed when camping it, its expected at least 1ish per 24 hour to show up w a Manastone.

[shuklak]

6 manastones in a day! What a day to be alive!

[Jimjam]

Originally Posted by Lhord99 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Watching the anti-Blue fury fully evolve into ...this... has been nothing short of Greek comedy. This is Lysistrata. Better yet, this is Oedipus discovering he cucked his own dad.

These incels wish they were motherfuckers.