Numerical Proof of Kunark Experience Discrepencies

[Sabin76]

Originally Posted by Vivitron [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The op estimates a three level range on the mob. If they are right, then the numbers for 55 seem to work out if the two lower level spawns only give half xp, despite still conning blue.

I actually bothered to run some numbers now and you are right. If the level range is 40-42 then I actually get the following:

Level 52: delta of -6 kills if all of them are full XP
Level 53: delta of -3 kills if all of them are full XP
Level 54: delta of -4 kills if all of them are full XP
Level 55: delta of 0 (!!!) kills if 2/3 of the kills were half XP and 1/3 were full XP
Level 56: delta of +2 kills if 2/3 of the kills were half XP and 1/3 were full XP
Level 57: looks like it's on track to be 2/3 of the kills at 1/4 XP and 1/3 at 1/2 XP

It's odd and doesn't fit without some serious streaking in the RNG. Would help to get a definite level range of the mob, though.

[Castle2.0]

Originally Posted by Sabin76

Level 54: delta of -4 kills if all of them are full XP
Level 55: delta of 0 (!!!) kills if 2/3 of the kills were half XP and 1/3 were full XP

How could you go from 100% full exp kills to 2/3 half exp and 1/3 full exp?

If there is a 3 level range and all are within range to give full exp, once you go up 1 more level it would make sense if you did get some partial exp kills it would break 2/3 full exp, 1/3 partial exp.

[Sabin76]

Originally Posted by Castle2.0 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

How could you go from 100% full exp kills to 2/3 half exp and 1/3 full exp?

If there is a 3 level range and all are within range to give full exp, once you go up 1 more level it would make sense if you did get some partial exp kills it would break 2/3 full exp, 1/3 partial exp.

Exactly. That's why I say at the bottom that it's odd and doesn't fit unless there were some serious streaks in the RNG. For fun, I ran the numbers if the shift started happening at 54 (1/3 getting the 1/2 XP hit) and the delta was -43. That's a pretty serious difference. I'm not a statistician, but I'd wager it's fairly improbable that happened.

When I have more time, I'm going to play with Dyrna's levels a bit and see if I can get the data to fit better (Maybe 41 is the high so it's actually 39-41? Or 41-43?). The thing is, the level ranges on the consider page skip over all the 50's and go straight to 60, so it's not at all clear what actual level she should be just based on this data set.

Edit: it's not letting me edit my previous post, but I was just going to add that "delta" = (# of kills measured) - (# of kills estimated)

[Vivitron]

Originally Posted by Castle2.0 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

How could you go from 100% full exp kills to 2/3 half exp and 1/3 full exp?

It would mean the range of full xp mobs narrows when leveling from 54 to 55. Not what we expect as far as I know, but the alternate hypothesis that the xp total to get through 55 was changed is also unexpected given Nilbog's comment in this thread.

[Sabin76]

Ran a few more scenarios and they all return the same result: assuming the level totals have not changed from Blue there are large discrepancies between level 54 and 55. All models fit to going from full XP for all mobs to the lower 2/3 giving half XP at level 55.

I used the same 3 level range the OP estimates, I just shifted the levels up and down 1 (so Dyrna being a level 41-43 mob and then again for Durna being a level 39-41 mob).

Dyrna being a level 41-43 mob is a slightly closer fit, except that all of the deltas become positive and the self reported error (getting a few random XP hits in a Seb group) should shift the delta negative (as seen in the original 40-42 range). Unless there were deaths that were unreported?!

The level 39-41 Dyrna was dead on arrival with consistent deltas in the negative double digits as a best case.

As Vivitron points out above, there is more than one explanation for this still, but none of them are easy to test. You would need to start with a truly static level spawn to take that variable out of the picture.

[Castle2.0]

Could try quest exp. Quest rewards are static and do not (or rather should not) change based on level. Testing from a ranger on the gnoll scroll quest for 53-56 tells me 53+ exp tables are off.

Or, there is a secret modifier that nerfs quest exp as you go 53+, which is totally unclassic.

[ewjax]

I also have numerical proof of Kunark experience discrepancies.

We all know every level 51-60 is a hell level, and that 54 and 59 are supposed to be "double hell" levels. The theoretical exp per level is shown below.

To test this, I used my enchanter to collect some data soloing the entry mobs in Howling Stones, in levels 54 and 55. There is a bit of fuzziness to the data since those mobs aren't always the same level, but they are close enough and if you get enough of them to average out the differences, you should clearly be able to see the trends.

The results are shown in the two fitting curves. Things aren't perfect, but what it basically shows:
Level 54 enchanter: Gains 1% exp per every ~2.9 kills.
Level 55 enchanter: Gains 1% exp per every ~3.4 kills.

The level 54 data was recorded across 16 mobs / 5% exp, and although I didn't record all the data, that 2.9 kills/percent rate stayed consistent for the entirety of level 54.

The level 55 data was recorded across 32 mobs / 9% exp.

If the theoretical data were true, what it SHOULD show is fewer mobs per percent in level 55 compared to 54. In fact, if you do the math, in level 55 it should be taking just a bit over 2 kills to gain 1 percent, not 3.4.

Conclusion: In current P99, if the desire is for 54 to be a double-hell level, and 55 to be just a single-hell level, that is not what is happening in game. Either level 54 is too easy, or 55 too hard. I'm not sure which of those two it is.

[Sabin76]

Now that I've hit 55 myself (almost entirely on Nyzil, who is a static level 45 mob as far as I can tell) I, too, am seeing more kills needed for the same percentage.

So, either there is a bug, or what we think we know about how much experience it should take is wrong.

[chowdah555]

Along the way on live, they eventually evened out the XP per level in the 50s and eliminated the hell levels. It was the same total XP but a more linear in progression. Is it possible we're somehow on that formula now?

[Sabin76]

Originally Posted by chowdah555 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Along the way on live, they eventually evened out the XP per level in the 50s and eliminated the hell levels. It was the same total XP but a more linear in progression. Is it possible we're somehow on that formula now?

I have seen this said several times, but I can't seem to find the patch notes that address it. I seem to recall someone mentioning that it happened at the same time class penalties got removed (which would be the January 17, 2001 patch), but nothing in that lengthy letter about experience has to do with smoothing out the 50-60 progression. But even if true, we are a long ways off from that.

Even if it happened earlier in the timeline, it would be hard to imagine the XP progression being changed a little over a month after they even introduced those levels.