Miscellaneous: Drusella Sathir and NOS drop rate

[jadier]

Originally Posted by Bagavan [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

My ench buddy and I have killed every spawn since Jan 4th....

That's 94 times you've killed DS.

If the drop rate is 1/40 that means there's a 1-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/50, that's a 3-in-20 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/100, that's a 4-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

The devs make mistakes, sure, but I think the probability they just accidentally left an item off DS' loot table is much less than 10%. So even at the highest estimated drop rate, that's just not very unlikely. This is most likely not a bug.

[Arvan]

Does nobody understand how probabilities work? If it has a 1/40 chance of dropping and you kill the mob 100 times the 101st kill still has a 1/40 chance of dropping

[qezelia]

Originally Posted by Izmael [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

In a few months superior necks will be plentiful and readily available in WW for a fraction of the time/effort needed to loot a NoS.

I get what you're saying, but that's kinda like saying it'd be ok if FBSS (or any other item comparison) didn't drop in classic because Sash of the Dragonborn will drop in Kunark.

Originally Posted by jadier [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

That's 94 times you've killed DS.

If the drop rate is 1/40 that means there's a 1-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/50, that's a 3-in-20 chance you've been unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/100, that's a 4-in-10 chance you've been unlucky.

The devs make mistakes, sure, but I think the probability they just accidentally left an item off DS' loot table is much less than 10%. So even at the highest estimated drop rate, that's just not very unlikely. This is most likely not a bug.

Yes because the first post in the thread claiming it's a 1/40 drop rate is gospel.

If the drop rate is 1/10 that means there's an almost 0% chance you could be that unlucky.

If the drop rate is 1/20 that's a less than 1% chance you could be that unlucky.

Kunark is more than half over and she likely hasn't dropped it a single time. Does it really seem that unfathomable that the devs missed something? And if it's not broken, is this really what the drop rate should be? I may have been a 9 year old idiot when I was playing EQ back in the day, but I do recall seeing this item for sale (I quit early on in Velious). If it was really that rare, I doubt I would have even known it existed.

Also, in case you were unaware, NoS isn't supposed to be on DS' loot table at all times. It originally dropped from The Kly in Dalnir and is supposed to be moved to DS after it is removed from the The Kly. So yes, it does seem to be a bit of a coincidence that there is potentially some extremely poor RNG going on with a mob that is supposed to experience a loot table update. It's at least worth double checking at this point, no?

Originally Posted by Arvan [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Does nobody understand how probabilities work? If it has a 1/40 chance of dropping and you kill the mob 100 times the 101st kill still has a 1/40 chance of dropping

While what you're saying is true, that isn't the argument we have taking place. Each individual time she is killed, if it is assumed the drop rate is a 1/40 (2.5%) chance, then yes, you are correct, you have a 2.5% chance of a NoS dropping on that particular kill.

However, if you kill her 101 times, then the probability you will find at least one NoS amongst those kills is roughly 92.25%.

Two very different things.