******Official politics thread ******

[Throndor]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I will be surprised if Tesla makes it through 2019 without going bankrupt. They are not down because they laid off 7% of their workforce, but because no one wants to buy the Model 3: only 30-40,000 new orders in Q4 despite pulling demand forward due to the tax credit expiring. They have finished the American backlog and European homologation was bungled to the point that they won't be able to sell anything there before Q1 finishes.

Q1 is going to be a bloodbath. Even Elon in his latest memo said something like 'with a huge amount of hard work and luck we might be able to break even in Q1'. This is from the most optimistic (or most fraudulent, depending on your viewpoint) guy in the world who previously claimed that investors should have 'no concern at all that Tesla would fail to produce 10,000 M3/week by the end of 2018'.

Keep in mind that even if Tesla were able to maintain $300m a quarter, at a generous auto P/E of 10 that equates to a $12 billion valuation and a share price of $50. So the market is pricing in 6x growth, only Tesla has already maxed out the Fremont plant and cannot possibly grow at all without Shanghai, which won't be ready for another year even on Tesla's literally-always-wrong timeline. Rising interest rates/QT and the end of the business cycle also do not bode well for Tesla's long term survival.

If you have channel traded Tesla in the past successfully, more power to you. It's been a great trade. Just keep in mind that's inherently a short vol strategy and those have a way of blowing up spectacularly. If Tesla ever breaks $230 or so to the downside it will likely fall a long way.

I hear ya. I have stoploss orders in place as well, and i dont really give too much of a shit on the actual value the company deserves to be priced at; reality is their share value is largely contingent upon the millennial investor, who is largely ruled by the "eco-friendly" narrative. Ive been toying with riding both nio and tesla up, and then dumping them on the fall for the past several months. In reality, NIO has a much better chance at being viable longterm, with china's support and the close relationship with their parts manufacturers but they will remain ebbing and flowing between 6.5 and 7 until trump brokers a deal with china later this year.

Anyways, back to tesla, In this scenario, im fairly confident that eco-minded optimism will come through one or two more times before the stark reality of business fundamentals comes in to play here. This is largely why i mentioned the pull n wait strategy come the 6th of february, when tesla could be on the hook for making a loan payment with company cash if their valuation doesnt surge back up to 360+/share to keep the sharks off their back. If it induces a panic we could very well see tesla dive back down to sub200/share where many analysts are saying they rightfully should be priced at.

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I will be surprised if Tesla makes it through 2019 without going bankrupt. They are not down because they laid off 7% of their workforce, but because no one wants to buy the Model 3: only 30-40,000 new orders in Q4 despite pulling demand forward due to the tax credit expiring. They have finished the American backlog and European homologation was bungled to the point that they won't be able to sell anything there before Q1 finishes.

Q1 is going to be a bloodbath. Even Elon in his latest memo said something like 'with a huge amount of hard work and luck we might be able to break even in Q1'. This is from the most optimistic (or most fraudulent, depending on your viewpoint) guy in the world who previously claimed that investors should have 'no concern at all that Tesla would fail to produce 10,000 M3/week by the end of 2018'.

Keep in mind that even if Tesla were able to maintain $300m a quarter, at a generous auto P/E of 10 that equates to a $12 billion valuation and a share price of $50. So the market is pricing in 6x growth, only Tesla has already maxed out the Fremont plant and cannot possibly grow at all without Shanghai, which won't be ready for another year even on Tesla's literally-always-wrong timeline. Rising interest rates/QT and the end of the business cycle also do not bode well for Tesla's long term survival.

If you have channel traded Tesla in the past successfully, more power to you. It's been a great trade. Just keep in mind that's inherently a short vol strategy and those have a way of blowing up spectacularly. If Tesla ever breaks $230 or so to the downside it will likely fall a long way.

really good post dude

how can you be this knowledgeable about mathematics but be such a dolt when it comes to politics? Have you sought Christ?

[Patriam1066]

Originally Posted by feniin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTZNvlBAF60

This is a pretty honest, brilliant analysis on how we ended up with Trump. And I agree and have fallen into some of the pitfalls he describes.

So, I'd like to apologize to SC, Throndor, Mick and crew. We didn't engage in proper discourse and name-called each other rather than talking about the actual politics/positions (you guys were just as bad, so don't suck your own dicks too much).

I'll try to stick to the policies and positions more in the future.

build the wall dude. I am brown and will vote for a Neo nazi if you y'all don't stop giving money to freeloading ass holes who don't speak English. Thanks and god bless

[Ahldagor]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I will be surprised if Tesla makes it through 2019 without going bankrupt. They are not down because they laid off 7% of their workforce, but because no one wants to buy the Model 3: only 30-40,000 new orders in Q4 despite pulling demand forward due to the tax credit expiring. They have finished the American backlog and European homologation was bungled to the point that they won't be able to sell anything there before Q1 finishes.

Q1 is going to be a bloodbath. Even Elon in his latest memo said something like 'with a huge amount of hard work and luck we might be able to break even in Q1'. This is from the most optimistic (or most fraudulent, depending on your viewpoint) guy in the world who previously claimed that investors should have 'no concern at all that Tesla would fail to produce 10,000 M3/week by the end of 2018'.

Keep in mind that even if Tesla were able to maintain $300m a quarter, at a generous auto P/E of 10 that equates to a $12 billion valuation and a share price of $50. So the market is pricing in 6x growth, only Tesla has already maxed out the Fremont plant and cannot possibly grow at all without Shanghai, which won't be ready for another year even on Tesla's literally-always-wrong timeline. Rising interest rates/QT and the end of the business cycle also do not bode well for Tesla's long term survival.

If you have channel traded Tesla in the past successfully, more power to you. It's been a great trade. Just keep in mind that's inherently a short vol strategy and those have a way of blowing up spectacularly. If Tesla ever breaks $230 or so to the downside it will likely fall a long way.

Has Tesla said anything concerning rising costs due to China's stranglehold on the rare-earth minerals that are used in their hilariously un-ecofriendly batteries?

[Throndor]

Originally Posted by Ahldagor [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Has Tesla said anything concerning rising costs due to China's stranglehold on the rare-earth minerals that are used in their hilariously un-ecofriendly batteries?

The rare earth metals are primarily mined in africa; notably the congo. Wheaton precious metals owns most of the cobalt mines which seems to be the limiting ingredient in EV batteries. I hold stock it that too.

[Ahldagor]

Originally Posted by Throndor [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The rare earth metals are primarily mined in africa; notably the congo. Wheaton precious metals owns most of the cobalt mines which seems to be the limiting ingredient in EV batteries. I hold stock it that too.

Um, no. China is still the world's top producer and miner of rare earth minerals.

[Throndor]

That may be true, but the metal in least supply is the cobalt.

[Throndor]

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicle...t#.XEpxTGmIY0M

[Raev]

Originally Posted by Throndor

In this scenario, im fairly confident that eco-minded optimism will come through one or two more times before the stark reality of business fundamentals comes in to play here.

To quote Yogi Berra, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. You could certainly be right, and Musk is a genius stock promoter. My personal prediction is that Q1 is the end. Once it becomes obvious that TSLA can't even sell the 250K model 3s from Fremont, where is the growth narrative that is supporting this ridiculous pricing?

Originally Posted by Ahldagor [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Has Tesla said anything concerning rising costs due to China's stranglehold on the rare-earth minerals that are used in their hilariously un-ecofriendly batteries?

That's the funny thing about TSLA: they aren't ecological at all. You haven't even talked about how most of the electricity comes from coal, or how their workers aren't unionized and have relatively poor working conditions.

Originally Posted by Patriam

how can you be this knowledgeable about mathematics but be such a dolt when it comes to politics?

It is precisely this knowledge of mathematics and science which has lead me to my political positions. Modern America has forgotten that life is a struggle to survive. Nothing is free! But you are too enervated to accept this after a lifetime of ease, and they know this. The founders would have started shooting long ago.

Anyway, I only posted here to bash TSLA. You may now return to insulting each other for another 2000 pages.

[mickmoranis]

google: is ruth bater ginsberg still alive