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#31
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![]() Quote:
For one attempt, since the chance of success is 40%, the chance of failure is 60%. OP decided to queue up five attempts. His chance of failing all five attempts (i.e., not having a single success) is 0.6^5, or 0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6*0.6, which is ~0.078%. Pretty close to 1%. Take for example, another scenario in which his chance of success in one attempt is also 40%, but he queues up 1000 attempts. His chance of success is still 40% on each attempt, but in 1000 attempts there isn’t a 40% chance that he’ll succeed just once. After only a few attempts it becomes less and less probable that he’ll continue to fail every attempt. | |||
#32
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![]() Quote:
This is the gambler's fallacy. One failure does not increase your chance on success on the next attempt. Don't spread lies. | |||
#33
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![]() So does this mean, if you flip a coin 50 times.
Sometimes youll get 49 heads 1 tails? Sometimes youll get 49 tails 1 heads? Sometimes youll get 50 heads? Sometimes youll get 50 tails? Or if you flip a coin 50 times, youll on average get 25 of each? If so, and for some reason you are looking at 40 heads after 40 flips, wouldn't the odds that it will be tails be higher? or is this just only explainable with a catchphrase "gamblers phalacy" unless you have a PHD in mathematics? | ||
#34
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#35
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![]() Only got ~8 manastones instead of 9?
__________________
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#36
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![]() Ohh look, it's mr one trick pony himself.
Oh, and pointless caveat filled "fastest to 50" (using hunderds of hours of other peoples time) "first to kill <a_lame_mob1>" (in a sea of mediocracy maybe has 1/10 merit) and the evergreen "highest DPS within a narrow scope that nobody else bothers with". See my sig for more info! Lolocaust. | ||
#39
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![]() Quote:
previous iterations have zero impact on the next event. it's still 50/50 to be heads again. | |||
#40
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![]() I’d say after getting heads 40 times in a row you’re most likely to get heads next - it is more likely you have an imbalanced or double headed coin than you’ve got a one in a trillion streak of heads on a equally balanced coin.
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