Problem with tailoring skill ups

[RosstheBoss]

I do appreciate the feedback, especially with the statistics. Of course, with statistics it's easier to say something is not manipulated or broken when you get 1, say, instead of 3 skill ups. Instead I got 0, which led me to think that this is broken.

Sooo, I appreciate the responses thanks~

[Cecily]

Oh it's clearly being manipulated to keep new tailors out of the market and drain platinum out of the economy. My advice to you is to get out now. This thread has made you a target if you weren't one already. Probably too late already, but DON'T log into this forum account and your game account at the same time. Good luck and I hope this helps.

[Axlrose]

After reading this thread, it sounds "scary" to attempt any trade skills without being maxed out in a stat. [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[RosstheBoss]

I will get out, thanks Cecily

[Jimjam]

I normally get high enough to make tattered or raw hide, depending on my class. If I really hit it, I can trivial leather padding, hand made backpacks if I am ambitious!

Don't really see the point of getting higher than that, though.

[Moosetoe]

Originally Posted by Daldaen [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

So, the tradeskill skill up calculation pre-2005 does 2 checks to see if you get a skill up. Both checks must be successful for you to get that skill up.

The 1st skill up check is based on your innate stat, the difficulty of the tradeskill, and whether you succeeded or not. The calculation is:

( BASE STAT - SPECIAL TS MOD ) / ( TS DIFFICULTY * FAILURE CHECK )

Base Stat is your WIS/INT or STR/DEX for Blacksmithing/Fletching respectively.
Special TS mod is equal to 0 for Smithing, Fletching and Poisonmaking. Every other TS it is equal to 15.
TS Difficulty is equal to a value between 2-4, Tailoring and Smithing are 2's, Baking and Brewing are 3's, Pottery, Fletching, and JC are 4's
Failure Value is equal to 1 if a success 2 if a failed combine.

This value gives a number, and a roll of 1-100 is performed, if your rolled number is less than the number you have, you pass this check and go to the next check. If your rolled number is greater than the number calculated above the check stops there and you don't get a skill up.

The 2nd skill up check is based on skill. If your TS skill is over 190, then the chance to skill up is a flat 5%. If your TS skill is under 190, then it is (200-SKILL)/2.

SO, an example case. If you are doing Tailoring with 255 INT, at skill of 190:

(255 - 15) / (2*1) = 230/2 = 115. This value exceeds 100, so you will pass the 1st check every time when you succeed the combine. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up so on successful combines you have a 5% chance to succeed.

(255 - 15) / (2*2) = 230/4 = 57.5. This value means on 57% of your failed combines you will pass the first check. The second check for skill of 190, is a flat 5% chance to skill up, but you will only get this far 57% of the time. So the calculation is 0.57*0.05 = 2.875% chance to skill up on a failed combine.

Using your above examples:

94 Othmir Furs, with 11 success and 83 failures

11 * 0.05 = 0.55
83 * 0.02875 = 2.38625

Out of that many you were expected to get just under 3 skill ups.

How unlikely is it that you got 0 skill ups?

(0.95)^11 = 56.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 11 Successes
(0.97125)^83 = 8.88% chance to not get any skill ups out of your 83 Fails

Yea you just had bad luck :/. This again assumes you're at a Tailoring skill at or over 190, and it assumes you had INT or WIS at 255. If you had a lower INT or WIS when doing combines, the likelihood of you not getting any skill ups raises a lot. If you were lower than 190 Tailoring, the likelihood of not getting skill ups drops a lot.

PS - The EQTraders Calculator is completely different due to changed TS values when they revamped to a skill cap of 300 and with increasing stat caps. I wrote a google doc for this calculation/chance to be used over on another emulated server using old code, let me know if you want to use it for your own knowledge, but the answer at the end of the day is max WIS/INT, try to do combines you will succeed at a maximum rate, and keep combining.

Then, is the calculation (( Chance of success = MIN(SKILL - (.75*trivial) + 51.5, 95) -- this is for things w/ trivial higher than 68 )) from http://wiki.project1999.com/Tradeskills wrong, and/or is the http://wiki.project1999.com/TradeskillTable wrong?

I attempted many, many Arctic Wyvern Hide Mask, Tigeraptor Mask, and Black Pantherskin Mask - all of which are LISTED as being a 252 trivial (both on the wiki and eqtraders). With 255 WIS, 169 STR, and starting the batch (157 total combines) at 200 skill, I skilled up to 206 (26.2 combines per skill-up). According to the Calculation/Tradeskill Table, it's supposedly 62.5% success at 200, 63.5% at 201, [...], and 68.5% at 206, though I only had 6 successful combines (3.8% success vs. the purported ~65%).

One thing I do find curious, though.. according to the wiki Tradeskill Table I linked up there, 95% success rate is achieved at:

• 80 skill for a 50 trivial (makes some sense, I guess)

• 120 skill for a 100 trivial (makes some sense)

• 160 skill for a 150 trivial (makes sense)

then..

• 195 skill for a 200 trivial (what?)

• 235 skill for a 250 trivial (what???)

and lastly...

• 255 skill for a 280 trivial (though impossible to achieve 255 skill, it makes no sense to me at all that a 280 trivial would be 95% successful at a skill of 255)

...so, I'm definitely wary of trusting the data here..

Also, assuming the calculation I referenced above is true and with such a small amount of data, I calculate the trivial to be more like 334 or so:

SKILL - (.75*trivial) + 51.5)
203 - (.75x) + 51.5 = 3.82% (SKILL averaged to just 203 from 200 -> 206)
-0.75x = -250.68
x = 334.24

ANYWAY, thoughts, Daldaen?

[Detoxx]

Moose, this is Detoxx. Thats quite the post you made.

I cant seem to recall anything regarding this topic...

Wait....











It's all coming back to me now....

#banished

[Cecily]

Originally Posted by Moosetoe [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

ANYWAY, thoughts, Daldaen?

Sure. The trivial isn't 252. Velious leathers are around 330 trivial and have about a 60% chance of success like you calculated.

[Kowalski]

...

[Daldaen]

Originally Posted by Cecily [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Sure. The trivial isn't 252. Velious leathers are around 330 trivial and have about a 60% chance of success like you calculated.

This.

Velious tailoring sets are actually 335 trivial combines in our era. Not the 252 you see listed. They, along with a variety of other tradeskill combines were dropped from 335 to 250-252 when they increased the TS cap from 250-300. Because they were thought to be too easy of a path to skill up on when a level 70 character could just PBAE all of Velketors and Cobalt Scar solo.

Also yes, the skill required to meet the 95% maximum success rate is a sliding scale.

At the lower skill levels, you need to be beyond the trivial point to reach that maximum success. At the higher skill levels as you see, even being 15-20 skill short of the trivial you still are at maximum success rate.