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Old 03-24-2020, 01:49 PM
magnetaress magnetaress is offline
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Red face A sick math problem I can't seem to wrap my brain around.

An 8% chance every 90 minutes.

vs

An 1% chance every 6 minutes.

8/90 = 0.0888888888888889% chance per minute?

and

1/6 = 0.1666666666666667% chance per minute?

How insane on a scale of 1-10 is this math? [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:02 PM
Videri Videri is offline
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If we're talking about killing NPCs here, don't forget that killing an NPC takes some amount of time, however small. This will affect the 6-minute spawn much more than it affects the 90-minute spawn since you'd be killing 1 NPC every 6 minutes, as opposed to killing 1 NPC every 90 minutes.

Does it make sense to calculate the chance per minute for EverQuest? Maybe it would be more useful to calculate the chance per hour.

Are there any 6-minute spawns, or are they all 6:40?

Also, I don't know of any 90-minute spawns. There are at least two 2-hour spawns in Rathe Mountains and a lot in Kedge Keep. Is there a particular one you're thinking of?
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:08 PM
magnetaress magnetaress is offline
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S Ro AC vs OOT AC

Everyone on my server says just afk in S Ro, I want exp so I am camping where I get exp...

I can kill one every 9 minutes...

so 1/9?

%0.1111111111111111‬ x 60? = %6.67 perm minute? or, .11 percent per hr

vs

8/90 = 0.0888888888888889% chance per minute?

So potentially 11 hrs for 100% drop. Vs potentially 88 hrs for 100%?

We are likely looking more at the mean, so more likely 6-7 hrs vs 40-50 hrs.

I can confirm, that this thing spawns 6 minutes after I kill it.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:30 PM
agnostic agnostic is offline
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The SRo AC has a small chance to spawn right before 9pm gametime, just park the character you'll want to kill it in the desert area and play an alt for awhile, camp over when it's 8pm gametime and see if it spawns.
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Old 03-24-2020, 02:38 PM
magnetaress magnetaress is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agnostic [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
The SRo AC has a small chance to spawn right before 9pm gametime, just park the character you'll want to kill it in the desert area and play an alt for awhile, camp over when it's 8pm gametime and see if it spawns.
how does this even work on blue when 5 wizards at lvl 50 log in and begin casting ice comments?

Anyway, not going to happen until this character becomes an alt, I am forumquesting and talking to guildmates actively, so killing a cyclobro ever 9 for a 1% chance at a kewlcyclobro is what I am doing.
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Old 03-24-2020, 04:21 PM
magnetaress magnetaress is offline
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My maths were accurate it took 6 hrs of poopsock'n to get a ring )
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Old 03-24-2020, 07:04 PM
Gustoo Gustoo is offline
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In sro?

Good work

I haven't got the ring since they changed up the PH's in sro for AC. Never got the OOT AC but I thought he was way easier.
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Old 03-24-2020, 08:45 PM
Swish Swish is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnetaress [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
how does this even work on blue when 5 wizards at lvl 50 log in and begin casting ice comments?

Anyway, not going to happen until this character becomes an alt, I am forumquesting and talking to guildmates actively, so killing a cyclobro ever 9 for a 1% chance at a kewlcyclobro is what I am doing.
Ice comments are the best comments.
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:20 PM
Videri Videri is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magnetaress [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
So potentially 11 hrs for 100% drop. Vs potentially 88 hrs for 100%?

We are likely looking more at the mean, so more likely 6-7 hrs vs 40-50 hrs.
Yes, we are definitely looking at the mean. There is never a 100% chance of something dropping in a given time period.

Beware the Gambler’s Fallacy: the idea that previous outcomes influence future outcomes.

Suppose you flipped a coin 99 times and it came up heads every time. What is the likelihood of tails on the next flip? 50/50.

Suppose you camped a mob with a 10% chance to spawn and got 9 placeholders. What is the likelihood of a named on the next pop? 10%.

A lot of people at the manastone camp didn’t understand this, or refused to accept it. Past outcomes do not change the odds of a future outcome, ever.
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:22 PM
magnetaress magnetaress is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swish [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Ice comments are the best comments.
Yes, they are.

@gustoo it took 6.5 hrs in OoT, was pretty close. Know how RNG can be though, could get it in 3 or 23 if real bad luck.
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