2020 Election MEGAthread

[feniin]

Originally Posted by Castle2.0 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

R are within 1,800 of D for early voting in Palm Beach, Florida (43,119 to 44,726.)

In 2016, Hillary ended up +15% in Palm Beach.

R also doing stronger in D stronghold Miami-Dade than they did in 2016.

On this day in 2016, FiveThirtyEight had 71.1 to 28.9 (odds) predicting Hillary win in Florida.

2020 polls looking about as accurate as 2016 polls: crap.

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] Are you going to disappear when Trump loses?

[Mblake81]

Originally Posted by feniin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.] Are you going to disappear when Trump loses?

Yes, I think so.

[hobart]

Originally Posted by Castle2.0 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

R are within 1,800 of D for early voting in Palm Beach, Florida (43,119 to 44,726.)

In 2016, Hillary ended up +15% in Palm Beach.

R also doing stronger in D stronghold Miami-Dade than they did in 2016.

On this day in 2016, FiveThirtyEight had 71.1 to 28.9 (odds) predicting Hillary win in Florida.

2020 polls looking about as accurate as 2016 polls: crap.

In the year of COVID I don't think either side will know exactly what early voting means until its over.

I don't know that you're right or wrong about where FiveThirtyEight had Hillary vs. Trump in FL four years ago, but those aren't odds... Those are simulation numbers. They run tens of thousands of simulations and, if your numbers are correct, Trump won 28.9 out of 100. Those are still significantly plausible odds. Today they have Biden winning 2/3 times, but he's only ahead by two points on average across all polls.

Polls in 2016 weren't inaccurate. Trump always had a 25% or better chance of winning. His 1 in 4 came up. That doesn't mean the polls were wrong.

[feniin]

Originally Posted by hobart [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

In the year of COVID I don't think either side will know exactly what early voting means until its over.

I don't know that you're right or wrong about where FiveThirtyEight had Hillary vs. Trump in FL four years ago, but those aren't odds... Those are simulation numbers. They run tens of thousands of simulations and, if your numbers are correct, Trump won 28.9 out of 100. Those are still significantly plausible odds. Today they have Biden winning 2/3 times, but he's only ahead by two points on average across all polls.

Polls in 2016 weren't inaccurate. Trump always had a 25% or better chance of winning. His 1 in 4 came up. That doesn't mean the polls were wrong.

It's amazing that people still can't grasp simple probability. A 17% chance is the same as rolling a 6 sided die and getting the result you wanted. Trump was always in the running, even if the odds favored Hillary. There were so many unknowns with the polling that year since pollsters didn't take into account all of the non-voters and rednecks that turned out for Trump as well as the general apathy toward Hillary. They've altered their methodology and should, hopefully, be closer to the mark this election.

[Castle2.0]

Yes, the polls were wrong.

What good is a poll if its 10% off? I'm not talking odds, I'm talking polls.

When you have claim a 2-3% margin of error and the real result is a 10% off, I would call that poll "wrong." Yes, that happened. 10% off, 7% off, and more. It's somewhere in this thread if you want to find it.

When poll is wrong by 2-3x their claimed margin of error, how would you describe that poll? WRONG.

[Castle2.0]

If Trump loses, I'm not going to fly to Canada. I'm already here [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'll retrace the numbers to figure out what happened. Instead of burying my head and moving on like the 2016 pollsters. I determine my quality of life far more than the government - life will go on. I won't Burn Loot or Murder like the left seems to be okay with.

I asked earlier (and got no real response) but I will ask again.

What have the pollsters changed since 2016 to improve their polling accuracy?

Also, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, CNN, etc. had Hillary-Trump odds at approximately 90-10 close to election day [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

[Jibartik]

Originally Posted by FatherSioux [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Not sure why I trusted you. Never again.

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Edit: Oh kjs86z sorry, I didnt get that you were just making an observation that grown adults with boats were making a tantrum vote for trump. That is a great assessment of the whole movement! Sorry I missed that point.

[Gwaihir]

Originally Posted by Castle2.0 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If Trump loses, I'm not going to fly to Canada. I'm already here [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'll retrace the numbers to figure out what happened. Instead of burying my head and moving on like the 2016 pollsters. I determine my quality of life far more than the government - life will go on. I won't Burn Loot or Murder like the left seems to be okay with.

I asked earlier (and got no real response) but I will ask again.

What have the pollsters changed since 2016 to improve their polling accuracy?

Also, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, CNN, etc. had Hillary-Trump odds at approximately 90-10 close to election day [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm still waiting for Cher to move to Canada like she threatened to if Trump won in '16

[Castle2.0]

They've altered their methodology and should, hopefully, be closer to the mark this election.

Specifically, what did they change?

My prediction is with cancel culture, political violence (even cases of political murder / attempted murder), and MSM rhetoric against Trump and his supporters, the polls will be off by a lot again this year. The rhetoric hasn't gotten better, it's gotten worse.

"Hey I punch Trump supporters in the face. Are you voting for Trump this year?" "Hey do you have 20 minutes to talk to a stranger over the phone about politics?" Cmon jack.

[Jimjam]

Originally Posted by Castle2.0 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

R are within 1,800 of D for early voting in Palm Beach, Florida (43,119 to 44,726.)

In 2016, Hillary ended up +15% in Palm Beach.

R also doing stronger in D stronghold Miami-Dade than they did in 2016.

On this day in 2016, FiveThirtyEight had 71.1 to 28.9 (odds) predicting Hillary win in Florida.

2020 polls looking about as accurate as 2016 polls: crap.

The polls were accurate, Hillary did win the popular vote, and by a similar margin to that predicted by polls.

Where the analysis failed to consider was the distribution of the votes, which allowed the unpopular candidate to win.

I bet much of the oversight from the '16 pollers has been amended, so regional predictions are made more accurately. I wouldn't be surprised if there will be new oversights in current election though.

I'm kinda rooting for Trump in a 'watch the world burn' sort of way. I in no way think Biden is the Messiah, but at least the spin on Trump's presidency will always be entertaining. Glad I'm a little more insulated from the consequences than others are.