2020 Post Election MEGAthread

[Lune]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I take it by your silence that you agree with the statement that "Benford's Law is a reasonable method for determining whether fraud in an election occurred, although not where and by whom. Considering the huge incentives for such fraud and the way various statistics in the 2020 election flunk Benford's law, it's very likely that some level of fraud occurred in battleground states, although it's not clear how and by whom".

No, Benford's Law as an appropriate test for election fraud has been debunked. TLDR is essentially that our 2-party system divides voters into 2 halves which differ in statistically significant ways (urban vs. rural population density for one), and further divides them into precincts that vary immensely in size. You have divisions of 400 to 2,700 or more. Smaller precincts will produce more single digits and Biden/Harris precincts (more dense) will have more 3/4/5. The distributions on your blog simply reflect the distribution of precinct sizes.

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

If you agree that COVID response is an economic issue, then we know theoretically that the best solution to economic problems is to distribute the solution as finely as possible. If people in NY NY want to lock down and people in Rapid City SD don't, who are you to say that either group is wrong? Why is it necessary to force your will on them?

COVID response is an economic and public health issue. The best solution to economic problems is to distribute the solution as finely as possible. However, the best solution to public health problems is to distribute the solution as universally as possible. If Washington DC is excellent at controlling the virus, but Maryland and Virginia are garbage at controlling the virus, DC is just going to get re-infected by all their commuters.

Coronavirus doesn't care about state lines or political divisions, it goes wherever people go, and people in the US move fluidly all over the country. I care that people in Rapid City, SD don't want to lock down because that is a decision which ignores public health experts, who recommend lockdowns when ICU's are full. Note the nuance. Public health experts do NOT recommend lockdowns under normal circumstances; lockdowns can make things worse and sow untold economic carnage. But if ICU's are full, you may have no choice. I live in South Carolina, a Republican state, so it affects me when local governments make the wrong decision.

Also keep in mind many of these economic problems could have been mitigated by a better government response (or dare I say it, universal basic income)

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

There simply is no pandemic. 300,000 covid deaths is 0.1% of the population (and it's likely lower considering the dubious way deaths are counted). Compare this with real pandemics which killed 10-20% of the population.

That's not how pandemic is defined. Classification as a pandemic is based on incidence, not mortality. That's why the 2009 swine flu outbreak was a pandemic.

[cd288]

Originally Posted by Raev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I take it by your silence that you agree with the statement that "Benford's Law is a reasonable method for determining whether fraud in an election occurred, although not where and by whom. Considering the huge incentives for such fraud and the way various statistics in the 2020 election flunk Benford's law, it's very likely that some level of fraud occurred in battleground states, although it's not clear how and by whom".



If you agree that COVID response is an economic issue, then we know theoretically that the best solution to economic problems is to distribute the solution as finely as possible. If people in NY NY want to lock down and people in Rapid City SD don't, who are you to say that either group is wrong? Why is it necessary to force your will on them?



Please remember that I no longer play for Team Trump or Team Republican. edit: both parties are filled with toilet bowl scum in my opinion



There simply is no pandemic. 300,000 covid deaths is 0.1% of the population (and it's likely lower considering the dubious way deaths are counted). Compare this with real pandemics which killed 10-20% of the population.

To be fair, in many past pandemics the population was way lower so percentages naturally skew higher

[solleks]

LI think a pandemic would be infrastructure overwhelmed with dead body's in the street. Everyone would know it was serious and they would know people DEAD This is pussy shit

[TheBardo]

In the nightmarish 41st millenium, a thousand souls are sacrificed per day to power the golden throne of the Emperor of Mankind. Without it, the ruinous powers of chaos would overwhelm the imperium of man, and doom humanity to everlasting damnation.

In December 2020, two thousand people die of covid19 each day in America alone. Big time (1k posts) off topic project 1999 forums poster solleks: "this is pussy shit, fuck granny lol"

[douglas1999]

Originally Posted by cd288 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

To be fair, in many past pandemics the population was way lower so percentages naturally skew higher

Globally the population is way higher sure, but covid infection and death rates are still incredibly low in countries with populations of 1 or 2 million, which is far lower than the global population during much more deadly pandemics, so I think that's kind of moot.

[Raev]

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

has been debunked

Thanks for linking that. I looked up the database of precinct sizes and saw plenty of larger ones, but I guess my brain was unable to plot the actual distribution. So I it seems I have to take that one back!

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

That's not how pandemic is defined. Classification as a pandemic is based on incidence, not mortality. That's why the 2009 swine flu outbreak was a pandemic.

This was surprising to me, so I did some research. You are correct! However, the more interesting thing to me is that this word was basically unknown until 1920, presumably due to the 1918 flu. It seems like this was a deceptive propaganda word from the get-go: after all, no one cares about the 'pandemic' of dandruff (technically caused by a fungus that is probably contagious on some level). Sollecks gets it. So let me rephrase: COVID is simply not a major health crisis historically.

Originally Posted by TheBardo

In December 2020, two thousand people die of covid19 each day in America alone

The official average for 2020 is ~1000 COVID deaths per day vs ~5500 from other causes, and it's probably lower due to ignoring comorbidities. If an octogenarian tests positive for COVID but is also 50 lbs overweight with diabetes due to a lifetime of doughnut consumption, is his death really the result of an evil virus or simply the natural termination of his finite life?

Originally Posted by Lune [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

COVID response is an economic and public health issue. The best solution to economic problems is to distribute the solution as finely as possible. However, the best solution to public health problems is to distribute the solution as universally as possible. I live in South Carolina, a Republican state, so it affects me when local governments make the wrong decision.

I don't think this concept of a public health problem really exists. After all, economic decisions by one city affect others, like the size of the tax breaks for Amazon HQ2 or tax codes or any number of other things. The point is that the more fine grained the policy, the more people can get what they want, and if they are really upset they can always move. On the other hand, if you want to argue that COVID policy should be decided by a city and its suburbs in unison, I think that's reasonable. It probably wouldn't work on a house-by-house basis after all!

Anyway, the important thing here is that we can have a polite conversation and focus on facts rather than personal positions.

[reebz]

Originally Posted by Topgunben [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

AOC is not bad looking, but she’s got that crazy eye look going on. However, there’s no way in hell she is smart.

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[douglas1999]

AOC rages against capitalism while selling 58 dollar sweatshirts about "taxing the rich". Gee aoc we already do tax the rich, they already provide the majority of tax revenue, but thanks. She does nothing. She has the intellect of a 17 year old valley girl from california. She pretends to be "of the people" because she was a bartender for five seconds, while now earning six figures to do nothing all day. She's a complete fraud and an idiot, and she should stick to dancing.

[Jibartik]

I hated trump for a lot of reasons, and still do.

But you gotta hand it to the man, he lost the eleciton, but he is a winner. Why?

The most americans voted in this election than history, and that is because of one man.

Trump.

If you love him, or hate him, he got you to get involved in politics.

Nobody "voted because of Biden"... they voted, for, or against Trump, because of TRUMP, and nothing else.

Couldn't do it for Bernie, Nader, or anyone who was lawful good.

But you could do it for someone who rallied the troops, and enraged your sensitive sensibilities, to get you out and vote.

Trump did at least one, exceptionally great thing: he made politics important again.

[cd288]

Originally Posted by douglas1999 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Globally the population is way higher sure, but covid infection and death rates are still incredibly low in countries with populations of 1 or 2 million, which is far lower than the global population during much more deadly pandemics, so I think that's kind of moot.

Many historical pandemics also took place during times when our medical knowledge was either practically non existent or extremely minimal compared to today. It’s kind of a laughable analogy to compare one disease from modern times to others from 100+ (including sometimes multiple centuries) ago