Derakor's Drop Table

[ddxdy]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Chance of earring dropping does not decrease after the first earring drop

No, it sure doesn't, and that's exactly why the probability is so low. If you flip a coin, 50% chance it lands on heads. If you flip a coin again, 50% chance it lands on heads. If you flip 10 coins, there is not a 50% chance that all 10 flips will be heads. Hence binomial distribution theorem.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by ddxdy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

No, it sure doesn't, and that's exactly why the probability is so low. If you flip a coin, 50% chance it lands on heads. If you flip a coin again, 50% chance it lands on heads. If you flip 10 coins, there is not a 50% chance that all 10 flips will be heads. Hence binomial distribution theorem.

RNJesus does not abide by any rules written by mortal men.

[ddxdy]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

RNJesus does not abide by any rules written by mortal men.

You should buy a lottery ticket. You either win or you don't. 1 out of 2 of those will happen, so you have a 50% chance of winning the lottery.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by ddxdy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

You should buy a lottery ticket. You either win or you don't. 1 out of 2 of those will happen, so you have a 50% chance of winning the lottery.

Lottery is not Boolean. And there's more than 2 numbers involved.

And if my chances to win were 1 in 60 million, my chances would not go up or down if I played three consecutive drawings in a row without winning.

[ddxdy]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Lottery is not Boolean. And there's more than 2 numbers involved.

And if my chances to win were 1 in 60 million, my chances would not go up or down if I played three consecutive drawings in a row without winning.

But your chances of winning three times in a row are not 1 in 60 million.

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by ddxdy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

But your chances of winning three times in a row are not 1 in 60 million.

I'm pretty sure that at this point neither one of us knows what your point is.

[ddxdy]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I'm pretty sure that at this point neither one of us knows what your point is.

My point is exactly as I first stated. If the earring is an 8% drop rate chance, the chance of it dropping 5 out of 9 times is .00023%. NOT 8%.

Yes, one drop rate is 8%. But in a collection of drop rates, the chances of getting an 8% drop 5 out of 9 times is SIGNIFICANTLY lower. In fact, it's .00023%.

[Ciroco]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Chance of earring dropping 5 out of 9 times is 8%.

wat

[Samoht]

Originally Posted by ddxdy [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

My point is exactly as I first stated. If the earring is an 8% drop rate chance, the chance of it dropping 5 out of 9 times is .00023%. NOT 8%.

Yes, one drop rate is 8%. But in a collection of drop rates, the chances of getting an 8% drop 5 out of 9 times is SIGNIFICANTLY lower. In fact, it's .00023%.

Which you claim is more common that lightning striking. Something with your napkin math is obviously very, very wrong.

Especially since staff has already confirmed the drop rate is correct.

The fact of the matter is, you simply cannot measure "collection of drop rates." Get a better sample size or get out of here with your anecdotal evidence.

[ddxdy]

Originally Posted by Samoht [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

Which you claim is more common that lightning striking. Something with your napkin math is obviously very, very wrong.

Especially since staff has already confirmed the drop rate is correct.

The fact of the matter is, you simply cannot measure "collection of drop rates." Get a better sample size or get out of here with your anecdotal evidence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution