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Old 08-15-2013, 10:36 AM
pharmakos pharmakos is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lorraine [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
I don't think anyone disputed that, unless you were further trying to clarify it in case there were people who didn't know.
was just clarification, since the quote i posted was talking about raw AC but didn't define it.
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  #2  
Old 08-15-2013, 12:43 PM
Splorf22 Splorf22 is offline
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I did a test with Sakuragi vs the Cliff Golem in OT with and without the Shield of Elders (40 item AC). Both tests were about 5 minutes and had about 150 hits with various damage values. I then bootstrapped the data (my new favorite technique) to get:

1120: mean: 113.5 +- 3.4 [95% CI: 106.6 120.4]
1050: mean: 111.3 +- 3.9 [95% CI: 103.6 119.1]
1120 > 1050: 66.7%

What this means is that with 1120AC, I expect the average hit to be around 113.5 and almost certainly in the range 106-120. With 1050AC, I expect the average hit to be 111.3 (yes, this is LESS. I double checked to make sure I didn't mix up the parses) and almost certainly in the range 104-119. The probability that you will take more damage with 1120 AC is 67%.

The variance in this data is quite high. From what I understand, hits are either min, max, or a purely random hit in between. So I modified the data appropriately, which removes some of the randomness:

Replacing any number not 48 or 172 by 109.5
1120: mean: 111.8 +- 2.6 [95% CI: 106.6 117.1]
1050: mean: 111.5 +- 3.0 [95% CI: 105.6 117.5]
1120 > 1050: 52.0%

Thus we can see that the 1050 parse was a bit luckier on the damage interval hits, but the variance is still quite large. The variance goes down as the square root of the number of samples, so we'd need about 50 times as much data (3 hours with each configuration) to get a confidence interval with a size of +- 1. Needless to say, I don't think I can rent Coeur for 6 hours.

My conclusions:
1. Someone not named Sakuragi should tank the cliff golem for a few hours [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
2. Pasi is correct; for raids HP >> AC. Not only is the average value of AC quite small, but you care about about the worst case more. Based on this test if you are a main tank I would not give up even one HP for additional AC. This is actually good news for Iksar warriors!
3. Even if AC is working correctly (which is only a 50% chance according to this data, heh) the benefit of a ridiculous +40AC shield is very unlikely to be more than a few percent for high-level mobs.

Of course, all of this may be different for xp mobs with lower attack values. For reference, without the shield Sakuragi has about 170 raw item AC.
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Last edited by Splorf22; 08-15-2013 at 12:46 PM..
  #3  
Old 08-15-2013, 12:56 PM
pharmakos pharmakos is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Splorf22 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Needless to say, I don't think I can rent Coeur for 6 hours.
the tricky part would be having Coeur not go LD for 6 straight hours [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
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Old 08-15-2013, 04:27 PM
kaev kaev is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Splorf22 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
great post
I'd be very cautious about drawing any conclusion from this small amount of data. Given the behavior I've seen from the p99 pseudo-random number generator while crafting, I'd want to see a much larger sample as the basis for analysis.

Also curious about distribution of the hits. On live, ~ 20% of all hits were (dmg*2)+(dmgbonus), with additional peaks at min and max, the remainder were fairly evenly distributed. And the min and max peaks were affected by extreme values of ATK vs. AC (i.e. low level mob would get hardly any max and a lot of min.)
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Old 08-15-2013, 04:42 PM
koros koros is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaev [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
I'd be very cautious about drawing any conclusion from this small amount of data. Given the behavior I've seen from the p99 pseudo-random number generator while crafting, I'd want to see a much larger sample as the basis for analysis.

Also curious about distribution of the hits. On live, ~ 20% of all hits were (dmg*2)+(dmgbonus), with additional peaks at min and max, the remainder were fairly evenly distributed. And the min and max peaks were affected by extreme values of ATK vs. AC (i.e. low level mob would get hardly any max and a lot of min.)
It's too small to be definitive, but 150 hits should be a representative sample, *most of the time.
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Old 08-15-2013, 12:53 PM
Stinkum Stinkum is offline
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That's a damned nice post.
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Old 08-15-2013, 01:07 PM
koros koros is offline
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Can you try to test at some various AC values keeping agi constant? Very large chance ac over a certain amount does absolutely nothing.
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Old 08-15-2013, 01:28 PM
Splorf22 Splorf22 is offline
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I guess I have a hard time believing that the hard cap for AC is 170. I'm pretty sure Kanras implemented the Kahvok post and made 289 the hard cap for melee classes, although whether or not this is classic is of course up for debate.

Does anyone have links to some steel warrior tests of AC? The best I can find is http://www.thesteelwarrior.org/forum...hread.php?t=13 which certainly seems to match this.
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  #9  
Old 08-15-2013, 03:54 PM
koros koros is offline
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Well either you got statistically anomalous results, there is a hardcap, or there's some other mix of factors we haven't considered.
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Old 08-15-2013, 03:57 PM
koros koros is offline
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Can you check your logs and determine the cliff golem's min hit, damage interval, and modal hit?

Maybe charting the hit distribution would shed some light on what seems to be a pure cap.
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