Iksar Shaman - Solo Challenges?

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

I tried, man.

He keeps dodging the question.

He got really close though!

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The Central Limit Theorem is a very important theorem in statistics. It says this: if you sample a distribution, the mean of that sample is is a normal distribution.

https://www.albany.edu/~jr853689/Cen...remForDice.htm

At 1 PPM you will get 1 proc per minute on average, assuming an infinite number of weapon swings.

You can convert the sides of the dice to DoT Damages across ticks:

[Roll 1 = 40 damage, Roll 2 = 64, Roll 3 = 88, Roll 4 = 112, Roll 5 = 136, Roll 6 = 160]

Basically you are most likely to roll a 3.5, which means rolling a 3 or a 4. [88 + 112] / 2 = 100 / 36 seconds = 2.77 DPS on average.

This is what I am doing for all of the DPS calculations in my JBB example. Bcbrown is trying to use a Binomial Distribution specifically for procs because he wants to lower the DPS of the weapon proc to strengthen his argument.

[bcbrown]

Originally Posted by DeathsSilkyMist [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

At 1 PPM you will get 1 proc per minute on average, assuming an infinite number of weapon swings.

We have 16 swings. That's pretty far from infinite.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

We have 16 swings. That's pretty far from infinite.

You do realize the 32.8 DPS number from JBB, the 17 DPS number from the Pet, and the 10 DPS number from the Mob were also using infinity, correct? I said so multiple times lol.

If a mob swings 20 times in a fight, they will not always get the expected 10 DPS. Sometimes they will get more, sometimes they will get less. But over an infinite set of 20 swings, the expected DPS averages out to 10 DPS.

[Troxx]

/facepalm

[bcbrown]

The combination of the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, as I have tried to explain to you, can be used to calculate the means of distributions. Those means do not have to be Normal for the calculation to be valid.

In this scenario we have about 16 samples, drawn from a binomial distribution.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

DSM, you're not correct

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

The combination of the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, as I have tried to explain to you, can be used to calculate the means of distributions. Those means do not have to be Normal for the calculation to be valid.

In this scenario we have about 16 samples, drawn from a binomial distribution.

If you want to discuss an individual fight, you need to do a binomial distribution for the JBB DPS, the Pet DPS, the Mob DPS, etc.

You don't get to simply set the weapon proc to 16 samples, while leaving all the other samples at infinity.

You are changing the sample size for one variable to try and lower it's DPS in a silly attempt to win.

[bcbrown]

None of those other calculations use binomial distributions.

Originally Posted by 7thGate [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

BCBrown is correct in his analysis.

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by bcbrown [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

None of those other calculations use binomial distributions.

Yes, they do. Hit/Miss chance is a coin flip, for example. If the mob has 20 swings per fight, you would do a binomial distribution of 20 coin flips to determine damage done to the player.

Again, if you want to do the binomial distributions for all of the variables in the fight, go for it! I am using the normal distribution for simplicity's sake in my examples. You do not get to set one variable to binomial while leaving the rest as normal.

[zelld52]

WTB JBB

[DeathsSilkyMist]

Originally Posted by zelld52 [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]

WTB JBB

Good investment!