Options/Futures markets and liquidity in p99

[rahmani]

Interesting idea. As an economist, I've always been fascinated by EverQuest's economy.

On the demand side, one of the things that is required for prices to maintain their integrity in MMOs is a constant influx of alts or new players. That's because there is no consumption. If there are no new players, prices will drop.

WoW got around the quandry is by implementing consumption; gear was not reusable. Once you put it on, it was consumed. But even in the case of WoW, gear is only usable until a certain point, and at the end-game you'd typically consume less gear. Anything that can drive up consumption will help keep prices up.

Now, there's the issue of supply; Norrath can supply an infinite amount of FBSSes, they will never become more scarce, the way natural resources become depleted in real life. If you dig a coal mine deep enough, the costs eventually outweigh the benefits and the operation is shut down.

However, in MMOs the only way things can become more scarce is by players perceiving their value to be less and deciding to not camp the item anymore.

In short, items are simply doomed to loose value and prices are destined to plummet in the long-term. To respond to your question, I don't believe there's enough price confidence to structure a market like this.