Resist "streak" anecdotes, anyone?

[Tecmos Deception]

TLDR: I'm annoyed enough by having an apparent 1 in 2500 resist streak happen twice in the last several hours of gameplay that I scoured logs and parses and posted this during med breaks over the last hour. Commiserate with me.



I feel like I notice resists come in streaks. Anyone else notice similar, or have data?

I just had 3 resists in a row on a level 30 mob (I'm 35), then a success, then a 4th resist. This annoyed me to no end, so I looked in my log for other recent resists. (I actually started to type up a post like this a couple days ago because I was feeling the same way after a couple of resist streaks in short succession after a couple hours with very few and scattered resists, but I lost the interest in looking at it in much detail before I actually got around to it.) It'd been 26 minutes since a resist. And I had to go back another 39 minutes to find the previous one to that. And another 29 minutes to find another before that. And this is killing 1 mob every 5 minutes on average, with 3-4 spellcasts per fight.

So I fired up Gamparse to look for more detail on resists, since I've been playing for 35% of level 35 this morning and have quite a few kill racked up to look at, and I bolded stuff happening back to back:


[Mon Nov 18 07:29:06 2019] Your target resisted the Walking Sleep spell.
[Mon Nov 18 07:29:10 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Mon Nov 18 07:38:24 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Mon Nov 18 08:10:07 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.
[Mon Nov 18 09:04:42 2019] Your target resisted the Root spell.
[Mon Nov 18 09:20:32 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.
[Mon Nov 18 09:26:24 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Mon Nov 18 09:42:17 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.
[Mon Nov 18 09:42:29 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.
[Mon Nov 18 10:11:24 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.
[Mon Nov 18 10:50:07 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Mon Nov 18 11:16:07 2019] Your target resisted the Walking Sleep spell.
[Mon Nov 18 11:16:16 2019] Your target resisted the Walking Sleep spell.
[Mon Nov 18 11:16:20 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Mon Nov 18 11:16:34 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.


So there was only that one big streak of 3 (which was part of 4 resists in 5 casts, 3 resist, 1 stuck, 1 resist), and one more streak of 2 (and a time with 2 resists in 3 casts, resist, stuck, resist). This is out of 75 envenomed breaths, 22 roots, 58 scourges, 49 walking sleeps, and 27 winter's roars. Average overall resist rate of 6.5%. Winter's roar had no full resists, nothing else stands out individually imo. Ignoring winter's roar, average resist rate was 7.3%.

So that doesn't seem all that streaky really, right? Only 2 actual occurrences of back to back resists in nearly 4 hours of grinding exp.

But the chances of that 3 resists in a row are only 1 in 2500 (is it a lower or higher chance to see 4 resists in 5 casts at 7.3% average resist rate? I'm unclear on how to calculate that)!


Yesterday:

[Sun Nov 17 21:13:57 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.
[Sun Nov 17 21:14:11 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Sun Nov 17 21:29:06 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Sun Nov 17 21:29:12 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Sun Nov 17 21:29:22 2019] Your target resisted the Envenomed Breath spell.
[Sun Nov 17 21:38:12 2019] Your target resisted the Walking Sleep spell.
[Sun Nov 17 22:14:59 2019] Your target resisted the Scourge spell.

Another 1 in 2500 "jackpot" but in a much shorter session? Same NPCs, same level for me?


I don't know. Maybe I'm just nuts. But I've always FELT like resists came in streaks. And seeing a .000389% thing happening twice in under 5 hours of play, just 250ish spellcasts or so? It stood out to me. I know "RNG is RNG" ... but still.

As I continue grinding through 35 on the same mobs, I'll keep an eye on it and post the rest of the info later.