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Old 02-10-2020, 02:48 AM
Wisteso Wisteso is offline
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Default Tradeskill success not matching wiki formula

According to the wiki, doing a combine of something after being the exact 'trivial' skill amount should succeed 66% of the time, but this was definitely not even close to the success rate I had when doing quite a lot of Heady Kiola combines. Other combines seemed to mirror this as well but I don't have as much data on those.

Over the course of probably 100 combines I observed about a 90-95% success rate at 46 skill, not 66%. I suppose I could have 1 in a million luck, but seems more likely that the wiki is just not correct. I never recall having only 66% chance when trivial in retail either.

Anyone know what's going on here?
  #2  
Old 02-10-2020, 04:07 AM
chaos1990 chaos1990 is offline
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tradeskills now adjusted to be timeline appropriate and all leveling exorbitantly expensive leaving only those who got in early profitable
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:22 AM
eqravenprince eqravenprince is offline
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I can't speak for the wiki, but I only remember it being 95% success rate once trivial.
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:33 PM
Hoppkins_Wytchfinder Hoppkins_Wytchfinder is offline
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95% is the correct figure for trivial combines
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Old 02-10-2020, 01:13 PM
loramin loramin is offline
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If the wiki is wrong, fix it! [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
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Old 02-10-2020, 01:26 PM
Jungleberry Jungleberry is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
If the wiki is wrong, fix it! [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:08 PM
Swish Swish is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loramin [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
If the wiki is wrong, fix it! [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
  #8  
Old 02-10-2020, 07:09 PM
ewjax ewjax is offline
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Not sure where the 66% value is coming from? The equations I got from the wiki predict 95% success when skill >= trivial.
  #9  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:08 PM
larper99 larper99 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ewjax [You must be logged in to view images. Log in or Register.]
Not sure where the 66% value is coming from? The equations I got from the wiki predict 95% success when skill >= trivial.
The wiki states:
MIN(SKILL - (.75*trivial) + 51.5, 95) -- this is for things w/ trivial higher than 68.

So, for Skill = 68, trivial = 68,
SKILL-(.75*trivial) + 51.5 = 68 - 51 + 51.5 = 68.5.
MIN(68.5,95) = 68.5 for a skill with a trvial of exactly 68. For skills with higher trivial values, the "trivial" percentage would be higher until it reaches 95.
It would actually take a skill with a trivial value of 174 to have a 95% success rate at the trivial value, according to this formula (x=(95-51.5)/.25 => x=174).

For Heady Kiola, the trivial is 46. Wiki states the formula for skill with trivials less than 68 as:
MIN(Skill - Trivial + 66, 95)

For Skill = 46, trivial = 46,
SKILL-Trivial + 66 would be 0+66 = 66.
MIN(66,95) = 66.

That all being said, I don't believe the given formulas are correct. I get about a 95% success on crafting when above trivial, although I have never analyzed the results systematically.
Last edited by larper99; 02-10-2020 at 08:23 PM..
  #10  
Old 02-11-2020, 02:33 AM
Wisteso Wisteso is offline
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Roughly same conclusion I was having larper99. The formula was saying I should have 66% chance but I was having significantly higher with a fairly high sample size that should have ruled out random luck.

As for updating the wiki, that would assume I know the correct calculation. I don't. I just know that what's on there presently looks to be wrong.
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